If the Tories want to survive, they only have one option: send for Boris

The party needs an optimistic leader who can reach beyond its base and raise morale

The ground is beginning to move beneath Theresa May’s feet. Just a few months after she survived one attempt by Tory MPS to kick her out, they are after her again. This time they are backed by the grassroots membership, which must be a first for a Conservative leader.

Traditionally the activists are ultra-loyal; but a majority now say they might support Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party ahead of their own in the European elections, should they take place. The difficulty her detractors have is that under party rules Mrs May cannot be challenged again for a period of 12 months after the last unsuccessful bid to unseat her, which takes us to December.

But such is the head of steam behind the desire for a new leader after her failure to deliver Brexit on time that some MPS want the executive of the backbench 1922 Committee to allow another motion of confidence to be tabled in Mrs May forthwith. In addition, 70 Tory associations are demanding an extraordinary meeting of the party’s National Conservative Convention (NCC) to consider her future.

This is an unprecedented twin attack on a party leader, let alone a sitting prime minister. Even when a majority of his MPS declared no confidence in his leadership, Jeremy Corbyn was able to appeal to Labour members to nullify the vote of the parliamentarians.

Mrs May has no such option; and even if she had, it seems the members are against her in any case. Part of the problem stems from the fact that they never gave her their endorsement in the first place because she was elected by acclamation in July 2016 after her only opponent, Andrea Leadsom, dropped out. To be fair, that was not Mrs May’s fault; had she made her pitch for the leadership and won the backing of the activists, they might have been more reluctant to turn against her now.

But turn against her they have. The petition calling for an NCC meeting states that local Tory chairmen and women “no longer feel that Mrs May is the right person to continue as Prime Minister to lead us forward in the negotiations”. It adds: “We therefore with great reluctance ask that she considers her position and resigns, to allow the Conservative Party to choose another leader and the country to move forward and negotiate our exit from the EU.”

The obvious question that arises is: who? Yet whenever those Tories who want Mrs May out are asked to name her replacement, they go all coy. Dinah Glover, who chairs London East Conservatives and who is organising the petition against the Prime Minister, was asked on Sky News yesterday to say who she wanted to take over. “To be honest that is not the most important discussion to have,” she said.

But with respect, if you are going to replace a sitting prime minister, it most definitely is.

We are not talking about changing the party leader in opposition, as with Iain Duncan Smith in 2003. Moreover, if the motivation for Mrs May’s would-be assassins is to prepare the country to leave the European Union without a deal when the current extension runs out at the end of October, then who they choose matters very much indeed.

For instance, among Mrs May’s would-be successors are half a dozen Cabinet ministers who have implacably supported the deal she has thrice tried and failed to get through Parliament. They have also backed her negotiating tactics and the Article 50 delay agreed at the EU summit a few weeks ago, even if some like Stephen Barclay, the Brexit Secretary, voted against it but stayed in the Cabinet.

So, if the party did manage to get rid of Mrs May, what would be the point of replacing her with someone who had gone along with the botched Brexit that is currently causing so much discontent? Furthermore, from the point of view of dozens of Conservative MPS, the choice of leader is an existential one, especially as it would almost certainly trigger a general election. An analysis by Comres suggests that the Tories stand to lose more than 40 seats in both strongly Leave and Remain constituencies.

A harbinger of what is to come will be apparent next week with elections to 250 local councils in England. Matters are unlikely to improve if the UK has to contest the European elections on May 23. No one expects the Tories to do anything other than appallingly in both polls, which will increase the pressure on Mrs May to go. They face a double squeeze: Brexit-supporting voters blame them for not delivering, while Remainers blame them for wanting to leave – which is a bit rich when Labour is ostensibly committed to upholding the referendum result as well.

What, therefore, is the rationale for replacing Mrs May with someone associated with a failed strategy? A new leader would have to do much more than “reset the negotiations” with the EU, which is simply not going to happen in any case as Brussels has made clear many times. The party is in such a predicament that it needs someone who can reach beyond its base, has the ability to raise morale and can project an optimistic message to the country.

The obvious candidate is Boris Johnson, the favourite among party activists, but who is opposed by many of his fellow MPS. Boris’s problem is that he repels as much as he attracts; but he won the London mayoralty twice in a city seen as Labour’s fiefdom and against a far-left opponent in Ken Livingstone. He has charisma and appeal, though that is not necessarily a plus.

In 1990, the last time the Tories ousted an incumbent premier, Michael Heseltine possessed the stardust but he was defeated by John Major, caricatured as a grey man. Yet he went on to win in 1992 with the highest popular vote in history. Who can say installing him in No10 was the wrong call if the aim was to win an election?

But this is a different age. For good or ill, we are in the era of the populist leader. If the Tories want to survive, they need someone who is nationally recognised, yet can campaign as an outsider and is a proven winner. A lot of MPS may not like it; but they all know who it is.

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