The Left is winning the great populist battle

Outrage at the betrayal of Brexit isn’t enough to secure disengaged swing voters outside London

Is Britain now a populist country? Quiet Middle England has gone off like a dormant volcano over the Brexit betrayal: many life-long Tories are now imbued with something greater than anger – a moral obligation never to vote for their double-crossing party ever again. Many have defected to Nigel Farage’s new outfit, which has politely vowed to tear the Tories “limb from limb”.

Metropolitan land, the spiritual seat of sneeringly sensible centrism, is also experiencing tectonic shifts. Wealthy eco-cosmopolitans now blandly recant apocalyptic prophesies of capitalism’s final destruction in a fireball of environmental catastrophe, without a hint of irony or self-doubt. And far from

ditching Blairism, elites are extending it into radical new territory; they are absolutely determined to protect that benevolent Nineties phenomenon of “modernity” from hostile “xenophobic, imperialistic” forces across provincial Britain and “the North”.

There is little doubt that our politics is quickly becoming a battleground between Left and Right-wing populism. Unfortunately, one of the biggest potential beneficiaries of this metamorphosis is Jeremy Corbyn. He could well now surge to power, riding a wave of anti-conservative Remainer rage and self-righteous middle-class socialism.

His side is already dominating the agenda: in recent days we have been hit with a particularly heavy onslaught of brain-numbing Left-wing bluster. This has ranged from politicians making snooty quips to the gallery over President Trump’s imminent visit to MPS jostling to share a stage with a 16-year-old soundbite soothsayer who has lambasted Britain over its so-called lack of action on climate change.

The cherry on top is that Mr Corbyn’s Britain will also almost certainly give a new lease of life to Scottish nationalist populism. Having failed to claw back support in key Scottish seats, Labour’s easiest route to power is through an alliance of convenience with the SNP. This week, Nicola Sturgeon effectively named her price for entering such an arrangement with Labour, announcing her aim by 2021 for another independence referendum.

A Right-wing populist movement, whether that’s a drastically reformed Tory party or a spinoff of the insurgent Brexit Party (or a coalition of both) could yet stop the rise of Corbynism. But to triumph it must learn two lessons that its Left-wing rival is too intoxicated by its own selfrighteousness to heed.

First, politics may be more passionate than ever, but disengaged swing voters, particularly in marginals in the Midlands and the North, will decide the next election. Second, outrage will not galvanise this group of people. They are fed up with politicians, dismayed over Brexit and long ago zoned out of Britain’s bickering. The only thing that will get them into the voting booth is a solid sense of direction, and an optimistic shift in mood.

Clueless centre-right policy wonks and their leftie Labour counterparts think compassionate socialism or sheepish socialism-lite is the best way to unlock these votes. What rot. Free market philosophy is economic populism in its purest form; it champions the aggregate wisdom of 66 million Britons making their own decisions, and takes on the elitist socialist concept of centrally planning people’s lives. The abject failure of Brexiteers to take this simple message, already well received in the shires, to less affluent, marginal Leaver heartlands, is truly breathtaking.

A Right-wing populist movement cannot stop Mr Corbyn unless it comes up with a message beyond “Brexit betrayal” (or, in the case of the Tories “we’ve changed”).

People want politicians who are tough on crime and immigration. But working-class areas also crave proper tax breaks. Many small businesses want the minimum-wage abolished, as it has priced away thousands of entry-level jobs. Disillusioned Leavers won’t vote for a Right-wing party that guiltily offers to chuck them more money; but they might vote for one that actually has a plan for reviving their dead neighbourhoods into booming export towns.

Bottom line: British politics may remain at the mercy of “the middle”. But we are still witnessing a revolution; not least because Right-wing conviction politics is now the only force that can pulverise Corbynism.