Conservatives must change course, or die

This week saw the most catastrophic local election results for the Tories since 1995, which was the prelude to the Labour landslide of 1997. Of course, Labour this year suffered too, although this doesn’t equate to a Remainer backlash. Yes, the Lib Dems surged, but they have always been a None of the Above vote; independents also flourished and there were stunning numbers of spoiled ballots. This was a protest against the Brexit chaos, both by those who want Brexit, those against it and those who just want to get on with their lives. Brexit is eroding the traditional support for the two main parties and it feels as if we are on the brink of a European-style realignment, that the frontline parties are battling not just for power but survival.

What complicates matters is their limited capacity for change. Jeremy Corbyn and Theresa May are ideological opposites but equally stubborn: they interpret every crisis as a challenge to go on doing what they already were, with a bit more grit. Their parties have tried to remove them and failed: politicians on both sides calculate they have more to lose than gain by having another go. In other circumstances sticking to your guns or playing for time might be wise, but when the parties are sinking in the polls, it’s really rather stupid – and there are worrying signs that things could be about to get a whole lot worse in the form of a grand bargain to push Brexit through the Commons with a customs union attached.

Not only is a customs union a bad idea in itself – perpetual domination by a vengeful EU – but the public will see this for what it is: the political class coalescing not to save Brexit but to save itself. They can give this nonsense whatever name they wish – Common Market 2.0 or Danegeld 2019 – it amounts to MPS sacrificing Brexit on the altar of expediency, and growing evidence shows that the electorate is becoming more sophisticated about Brexit, not less. It is widely understood that Brexit demands independence in trade, which is why the Brexit Party – with its staunch opposition to Mrs May’s deal – is doing so well. Any Tory MP who thinks “pushing Brexit over the finishing line” will make Nigel Farage go away is deluded.

This week was bad for Labour and the Tories; in three weeks’ time, at the European elections, it might get even worse. That contest will be explicitly about one issue and there will be two new parties on the ballot ready to hoover up passionate Leavers and Remainers. Westminster can gamble that this will be a one-off Brexit poll and not an indicator of wider electoral change, but this would be a mistake. Just look at the realignments happening around age, region and cultural values: the public is rearranging itself even as the Tories and Labour stick rigidly to outdated language and ideas.

The Conservatives are chasing a Blairite centre that began eroding years ago. It should look back further, to 1981, when they also took a bashing in local elections, only to turn things around with purposeful leadership and radical ideas. What’s needed now is something new on crime, tax and sovereignty. For years Euroscepticism was the Conservatives’ issue and chief problem. In 2016 it became their greatest opportunity. The failure to exploit this moment and turn the Tory party into a vehicle for national and personal aspiration is tragic. The only way to save the Tories now is to save Brexit, which requires new, dynamic leadership.

The public is rearranging itself even as the Tories and Labour stick rigidly to outdated ideas and language