Conservative ‘watershed’ looms as polls predict huge EU seat loss

THE Conservative Party is facing a “watershed” moment at next week’s European Parliament elections when it is set to lose more than half of its MEPS.

Pollsters and senior Eurosceptics are forecasting that the party will see its number of MEPS fall from 19 at the 2014 election to as few as eight in Thursday’s vote. Analysis by Martin Baxter, of Electoral Calculus, found that the Tories could be left with as few as eight MEPS, down from an earlier forecast of 10 just two weeks ago.

It came after a Yougov poll commissioned by The Times put the Brexit Party on 35 per cent – one point up on last week. For the first time, the Liberal Democrats overtook the Labour Party – who now sit on 16 per cent and 15 per cent respectively. The Tories were far behind on nine per cent. Mr Baxter said: “Voters have deserted them in droves, mostly for the Brexit Party as the public takes the chance to protest against the Government’s failure on its flagship Brexit policy.”

In the May 2014 election Ukip won 24 MEPS, Labour won 20, the Conservatives won 19, Greens won 3, SNP won 2, and the Liberal Democrats won 1.

One source close to the European Research Group of Brexiteer Tory MPS said: “It is now looking like a single seat night – this would be disastrous. The people we trust to crunch numbers say it is looking like single figures which is beyond our worst expectations.”

Priti Patel, the former international development secretary, said: “This will be a watershed moment for the party.” She said it was time for a clear out and “no surprise that the public will [treat] the election as a second EU referendum, demonstrating the disillusionment with the established parties”.