An earthquake awaits the Tories
The Prime Minister has said she will make a “new, bold offer” to MPS who have already rejected her Brexit deal three times. However, the plan – which, in reality, contains nothing either new or bold – is unlikely to make it “fourth time lucky” if she does indeed put the Withdrawal Agreement Bill to Parliament in the next few weeks. Talks with Labour have collapsed, and Jeremy Corbyn has little political interest in rescuing a deal negotiated by a Conservative Prime Minister who will soon be leaving office in any case. Tory Brexiteers are unlikely to be convinced by commitments to change the Northern Irish backstop when it has been obvious for months that this is a necessary condition for passing the deal and yet the Government has made no progress. And all the while the greatest momentum in politics today is behind a new party, led by Nigel Farage, that deems Mrs May’s agreement a betrayal and wants a no-deal exit from the EU back on the table instead.
Downing Street has shown every sign of considering the current political earthquake to be a minor tremor, whose damage can be papered over by tweaks to a fundamentally flawed strategy. What is extraordinary is the degree to which such a sentiment is shared beyond the party leadership. This week’s EU elections could easily see the Tories pushed into fourth, or even fifth place. Elsewhere in Europe, the remains of once-dominant parties on the centre-right and centre-left will be picked over by new forces that have filled the vacuum left by the failures of the past. In country after country, the demise of the traditional parties of government has not been a passing fancy. Why, then, some potential candidates for the Conservative leadership think it sufficient to talk airily of a “return” to the centre ground is not clear. Nor is the apparent determination of some Tory MPS to block candidates who might countenance a no-deal Brexit likely to be conducive to the long-term health of the party.
Theresa May’s leadership is drawing to a close, and her final efforts to salvage something from the wreckage of her deal are largely a sideshow to the real business of the Conservatives finding a replacement who can arrest the decline in their poll ratings, stop Jeremy Corbyn, and above all deliver a Brexit that respects the referendum result. This week is set to prove a miserable one for the Tories. It is important that they draw the right conclusions from it.