Brexit Party surge would cost Johnson and Rudd their seats

BORIS JOHNSON, Amber Rudd and other Tory “big beasts” would lose their seats at a general election if support for the Brexit Party continues at its current level, analysis has suggested.

The Conservative Party would suffer “devastating losses” of as many as 113 seats if Nigel Farage was able to secure 30 per cent of the vote at a general election.

But even if Mr Farage’s party won 15 per cent of the vote, it would still likely end the Tories’ chances of forming the next government because they would potentially lose as many as 67 seats.

Prof Matthew Goodwin, from the University of Kent, who conducted the modelling said “everything now hinges on whether the Conservative Party can deliver a meaningful Brexit” because it is mostly “disillusioned Tories” who are fuelling Mr Farage’s surge in the opinion polls.

“Put simply, the stronger Farage becomes, the greater the prospect of Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn,” he said.

Prof Goodwin’s forecasts are likely to increase concern among Conservative MPS that their party could soon be a spent force in British politics unless urgent action is taken.

The Tories are predicted to finish fifth in the European elections – their worst ever result – with Mr Farage’s party expected to come top with more than 30 per cent of the vote.

Mr Goodwin used constituency level data from the 2017 general election and Westminster voting intention polls published by different companies this month to assess how support for the Brexit Party could affect the Tories.

Under his model, the Conservatives would lose 67 seats if Mr Farage were backed by 15 per cent of voters, 81 seats if he were backed by 20 per cent and 113 seats if he were backed by 30 per cent.

All three scenarios would likely spell the end of Tory hopes to remain in power.

Under the 15 per cent scenario, senior Tories including Ms Rudd, the Work and Pensions Secretary, Stephen Crabb, the former Cabinet minister, and Nicky Morgan, the former education secretary, would lose their seats.

If it were 20 per cent, Mr Johnson, the former foreign secretary, would lose his Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat.

In the 30 per cent calculation, it would be David Mundell, the Scottish Secretary, and Ken Clarke, the former chancellor, that forfeited their seats.

Mr Goodwin said: “What these numbers show is that if the Brexit Party get anywhere near what UKIP achieved in 2015 then it is game over for the Conservative Party.

“Even if Nigel Farage and his new party get only 15 per cent of the national vote then this is likely to cost the Tories 67 seats, including high-profile defeats for people like Amber Rudd,

‘It depends if the Tories can deliver a meaningful Brexit. If they do, then they might be able to fend off this threat’

George Eustice, David Jones, Nicky Morgan and Zac Goldsmith.

“This is largely because much of the Brexit Party’s vote is now flowing from disillusioned Tories.”

Mr Goodwin said a large vote share for the Brexit Party would make the “clouds above the Conservative Party become even darker”.

“Everything now hinges on whether the Conservative Party can deliver a meaningful Brexit,” he said.

“If they do, then they might be able to fend off this threat. But if they don’t, then the party will almost certainly be plunged into opposition and Britain will be forced to say hello to the most economically radical and left-wing government that the country has ever seen,” the professor added.

Mr Farage said on Wednesday it was his intention for the Brexit Party to field a complete slate of 650 candidates at the next general election.

Mr Goodwin did consider the potential impact of the party not contesting seats held by Tory Brexiteer MPS: if the Brexit Party got 15 per cent of the vote and did not stand in seats held by Leave-voting Tories, the Conservatives would still lose 46 seats.