Boris could be PM by summer – if he doesn’t trip himself up before then

His credentials as a Farage exorcist are strong – but this time, he has to get everything right

It has never been hard to make the case for Boris Johnson as Tory leader. He’s a proven winner who was twice elected mayor of London, a Labour city. He supplied energy and optimism to the Vote Leave campaign – qualities that the Tories need rather badly now. In an era when exasperated voters seek mould-breaking politicians, he is the best candidate to present the Conservatives as force for change. In fact, he might be the only candidate able to do so.

The case against him is just as easily made. That he’s a showman, exposed as such when he last ran to be Prime Minister three years ago. That he lacks the organisational ability needed to operate at such a high level, which is why he disappointed as Foreign Secretary. That he is suited to being an entertainer – who excels on the page, on the stage and on the screen. But that he is, fundamentally, unsuited to No 10.

Until recently, most Conservatives took the uncharitable view of Boris Johnson – but Nigel Farage’s sensational comeback has now denied them this luxury. The Brexit Party now intends to march on Westminster, and

the Tories are terrified. “Our problem is now existential,” one minister says. “A lot of people who hate Boris now see him as their only hope of dealing with Farage and keeping their seat.” Even Ruth Davidson, who is known to loathe Boris, is now ready to disarm and says she’d “work with” him. He could be in No 10 by summer, if he doesn’t mess up the next few weeks.

That might be a big “if ”. He’s a dreamer but not a schemer, perhaps a bit too wary of being seen as grasping or calculating. Last time, he was so laid back that he failed to even answer phone calls – leading Michael Gove, his campaign manager, to declare the candidate unfit for the job.

The Boris advantages were as obvious then as they are now – but last time, he came across as a bungler. This time, he has to get everything right.

Boris’s credentials as a Farage exorcist are pretty strong. When he joined the Vote Leave campaign last time, he became the story, and Ukip was consigned to the fringes. Mr Farage ended up trying to grab attention by releasing grubby posters about immigrants.

Who else, ask Boris’s fans, can change the mood in a shopping centre by entering it? Or make an audience smile before starting to speak? If MPS select him as one of the two candidates put forward for election by party members, his victory is almost guaranteed. There’s talk of the other candidate conceding at once, rather than go through the motions of a five-week-long battle.

The only way for MPS to stop Boris is to trip him up now, before he gets in the final two. Or, rather, hope that he trips himself up – and there’s a reasonable chance of it.

Take the private meetings he has held with MPS. They go into detail, asking if he’ll axe HS2 or the foreign aid spending target. He hasn’t decided, so allows different MPS to walk away with different impressions – they end up comparing notes and thinking they’ve been lied to. He needs more of a strategy. And, crucially, a Chief of Staff on whom MPS can rely to run the show – and build an alliance with.

He’ll also need supporters. His allies talk about the “car-turners” – the people who were en route to his 2016 campaign launch only to turn around when they heard about the Gove detonation. Amber Rudd was among them. During the referendum campaign, she notoriously declared that Boris is not the sort of man she’d trust to drive her home – but she was ready, later, to endorse him as leader. This matters, because when she launched a manifesto of “one nation” Toryism on Monday, with a group of mainly-remain MPS, it was seen as a stop-boris campaign. It might, in fact, become the other half of the Boris coalition.

The truth about Boris Johnson is that he’s a pro-immigration social liberal who fits comfortably in the one-nation Tory tradition. Ms Rudd’s group is more likely to be aiming for Dominic Raab, who they regard as a Thatcherite slasher-and-burner. At a Telegraph debate a few days ago, Raab had the temerity to propose tax cuts – an agenda that always panics a certain type of Conservative. The Boris agenda, meanwhile, will involve more money for schools and the environment – to please one wing of the party – washed down with a robust Brexit strategy, to please the other wing. In this way, he can present himself as the unity candidate.

He can also declare himself the candidate who is not afraid of being outshone, so would have no problems promoting the party’s biggest talents. This hasn’t happened for a while. Theresa May has tended to value loyalty over ability and David Cameron had a weakness for hiring his friends.

One of the reasons that Boris is so personally disliked among MPS is that he puts so little effort into cultivating them. But as one of his allies puts it, this can now be turned to his advantage: “you can’t have a chumocracy if you don’t have any chums.”

He has one or two. He’s likely to take his Brexit strategy from one of his former deputy mayors, Kit Malthouse, who proposes a version of Theresa May’s deal without the backstop.

The pill for Remainers to swallow is that, if talks fail and the EU still cannot offer a deal acceptable to parliament, then the no-deal plan will be activated.

A bad option? Certainly. But when the European election results come out, they’ll show how many millions believe that giving up on Brexit is worse.

There are plenty of risks. The wheels might fall off his campaign, as they did last time. Tories may decide that the idea of a house-trained, Tory-unifying, Farage-thwarting Boris was a fantasy born of their own desperation. Jeremy Corbyn (whose own coalition is melting fast in the heat of Brexit) might start to look vulnerable, thereby reducing that desperation. Sajid Javid, who polls say is the second favourite of Tory members, might make the final two and come across as a fresher face with better, newer arguments.

But for now, the race really is Boris’s to lose.