Fraser Nelson
The likely next PM needs someone who can tame government if he wants his premiership to soar
Even someone with Boris Johnson’s powers of self-sabotage will struggle to mess this up. He is almost embarrassingly far ahead, with more MPS behind him than the three next most popular candidates put together. If he ends up facing the not-entirely-terrifying Jeremy Hunt, as looks likely, victory is all but guaranteed. He used to speak about seizing the ball, should it come loose from the scrum. In the event, it seems that the ball might end up landing straight in his hands.
It’s a bit worrying. He has barely said a word in this campaign. All is being taken on trust. His premiership could be a gravity-defying electoral success, like his time as mayor of London. Or it could be a disappointing flop, like his time as Foreign Secretary. We just don’t know. Nor do his supporters. They can hope. They have seen how he can bring optimism, energy and purpose to campaigns. But they’ll have heard stories about how, in office, he can be distant, scatty and dangerously inconsistent. It doesn’t depend on his mood. It depends on his team.
The ways of Boris Johnson have long held a fascination for me, given that he did my job with infuriating
success. As editor of The Spectator he was barely in the office yet somehow managed to lift its sales to new records. What was his secret sauce? He was, of course, a walking advert for the magazine – radiating a playful kind of Merry England levity that delighted (and recruited) readers. But his real genius lay in hiring – and devolving. He put together a brilliant team in whom he inspired energy and loyalty. He stood back and let them work miracles.
As mayor of London, things were going badly for him until he pulled off the same trick: hired a long list of deputy mayors from all walks of life. Isabel Dedring, a Harvard-educated American lawyer; Sir Edward Lister, a grandee of Tory local government; Munira Mirza, a brilliant young academic now seen as a future mayor. They chalked up achievements he can now boast about: knife crime down, homicide rate almost halved, 100,000 more affordable homes built – even tax cuts. He once compared himself to a “fat German tourist transported by superior alpinists to the summit of Everest”. A generous tribute to his colleagues, but it has some truth to it – and raises questions. Without the alpinists, how long would the fat tourist last on his own?
During his previous leadership contest, it was seven days. As Foreign Secretary, it was two not particularly distinguished years. He’d reminisce, occasionally, about how he had near-monarchical powers when an editor of a tiny magazine but as Her Majesty’s Foreign Secretary he was at the mercy of a large team picked and run by someone else. As he found out, government is a beast, and taming it is a rare skill. As Prime Minister, he’ll need this skill – or, more accurately, need someone who has it. And the person he needs most is Michael Gove.
All leadership candidates have been totting up their achievements. No one has a more impressive list than the Environment Secretary. His Academies Act was passed in 77 days, allowing schools to become independent of local councils. Most secondary schools have reached for these freedoms. Some 1.9 million more children are in “good” or “outstanding” schools. Just as important, the idea that children in poor neighbourhoods can never do as well as the privately educated has been forever destroyed. Every step of reform was taken in the teeth of opposition from trades unions – and the inertia of his own department.
When Gove was sent to Justice, he was under instruction to do nothing apart from keep judges happy. Instead, he embarked on a prison reform plan so striking that David Cameron ended up speaking of it as his legacy. Under his leadership the Environment Department has been, bizarrely, one of the busiest in government. There’s a theme here: Gove brings change. The odds on his being Prime Minister (Ladbrokes has him at 25/1) are daunting. But his style of politics – solid arguments, a clear strategy and quick results – offers a template for whoever will win.
It’s still possible that this might not be Johnson. There are already signs of trouble. His main campaigning tactic is to say and do nothing, lest he blow it all up. His campaign chiefs have been applying the thumbscrews to their fellow MPS with a little too much relish: one MP summarises their pitch as “vote for Boris if you don’t want a horse’s head in your bed”. Worrying if you think, as most MPS do, that someone else will call the shots if he ends up in Number 10. What if he turns out to be a cuddly front for other, far less cuddly characters?
But one of Johnson’s greatest strengths is that he’s not tribal. If he wins, he’s unlikely to fill his Cabinet with newfound loyalists. Team Boris, in its various iterations, has always been a colourful, high-quality hotchpotch: he’ll probably hire a good many of the candidates running against him now. But it’s harder to see him forgiving Gove for previous treachery. For a campaign manager to pull out on the launch day, denounce the candidate and run himself is as big a betrayal as you can imagine in politics. Gove’s recent taunting of his former boss – “Don’t pull out! I know you have before!” – is hardly a plea for rapprochement.
But there have been signs of it. The two were at a drinks party together recently, chatting happily. To those watching, it looked strange because it looked natural. Both are liberal Conservatives with a global vision of Brexit. Neither thought Theresa May’s plan would work. The leadership speeches they made this week are, for the most part, interchangeable. When they teamed up three years ago, it made perfect sense: Boris the electionwinner and campaigner; Gove the battle-hardened reformer whose team had pretty much run the Vote Leave campaign.
This leadership race has shown just how much energy there still is in the Conservative Party: we’ve seen qualities not noticed before in Sajid Javid, Dominic Raab and – perhaps the biggest surprise – Rory Stewart. If these talents could be harnessed in a Cabinet, along with Michael Gove’s radicalism and effectiveness, the Tories would not just be saved but could be almost unbeatable. Quite a prize, if Johnson could bring himself to claim it.