Attacks in the Gulf

What is going on in the Gulf? By any measure, attacks on shipping in one of the world’s busiest seaways, critical to the welfare of the global economy, are a matter of considerable concern. Two commercial oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman were hit by explosions requiring the evacuation of their crews.

Last month four ships were attacked off the United Arab Emirates. It is unclear who is responsible or what their motives are. The United States blamed Iran for last month’s blasts, but this was denied in Tehran. The UAE ships were moored and damaged by limpet mines, unlike the latest targets, which were at sea close to the Straits of Hormuz.

Since a sizeable proportion of the world’s oil and gas supplies moves along this route – including 30 per cent of global crude supplies – it was hardly surprising that spot market prices rose sharply. Tensions are already high between America and Iran over the latter’s nuclear ambitions and Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the multilateral agreement on sanctions.

The question to ask is: cui bono? It has been suggested that this is Iran’s doing in order to force up the price of oil to offset the impact of sanctions. However, would Iran risk a military retaliation from overwhelming American force in the Gulf through what could be construed as an act of war?

European countries that were party to the Iran nuclear deal disagree with Washington’s stand and are urging caution in a bid to lower tensions. But if these attacks turn out to be demonstrably the work of Tehran or even of an unofficial Iranian faction, then a united international response will be crucial.