Johnny Leavesley:

Only a superhuman prime minister could keep Corbyn out of No 10 without Nigel Farage’s help

During the 2016 referendum campaign, Nigel Farage famously declared that if Leave won, there would be no need for him to remain a political player in British politics. Presumably he assumed that, should the country vote to break from the EU, the natural party of government and patriotism, the Conservatives, would then “own” Brexit and dominate the issue so as to render all opposition to it to the wrong side of history. However, that was before the 2017 election, and you know the rest. Since then, Tory ownership of Brexit has floundered in a swamp of its own factions.

Whether or not Farage becomes seduced by success and sees government as a realistic possibility

in an electoral cycle or two remains to be seen. If a Brexit acceptable to him is achieved, maybe he will return to a career as a polemic celebrity or fade into statesmanlike retirement. I doubt it, though. A Yougov voting intention poll published on Sunday puts the Brexit Party in first place on 24 per cent, three points ahead of the Tories. One can see the likelihood of the Brexit Party splitting the Rightwing vote at the next election, ruining prospects for the Tories for at least a generation and allowing a genuinely socialist Labour Party to play merry hell with society and the economy.

However, such prospects are not a certainty. One can write the script, but it is impossible to predict. There are, even now, too many variables. Maybe the next Conservative leader will forge a path that delivers Brexit, rejuvenates the economy and gives hope to those hit by austerity that they have not been forgotten – the working-class communities for which Farage has become a poster boy. Oh yes, and the legions of natural Tory supporters who have turned away from them in contempt. Maybe, but such a leader would have to be superhuman to succeed. I sincerely hope that they will. I have been a Tory party member all my adult life and it is saddening to see its dignified, decent edifice crumbling. The unignorable question now is whether it has suffered an irreversible ratchet of decline?

Parliament and the country are as split as last year. The new factor in play is the astonishing rise of the Brexit Party, born out of frustration. The next Tory leader will deny even considering this, at least initially, but some form of electoral pact would save the Tories. The Farage tide will continue. A Brexit-conservative coalition, with a message of enough optimism, might even win an election.

Many senior Tories would no doubt find alliance with the Marmite-flavoured Farage a repugnant proposition, but reality should force what could be a very convenient marriage. Farage knows he can’t win a general election outright and many Conservatives will realise that is also their truth. A Brexit-conservative Pact might lose the Tories many of their liberal supporters, but it would give clarity over Brexit and be the key to enough popularity to save them. In essence, the next PM needs to be willing to work with Farage.

For most people, politics distils into simplicities that politicians often exploit or, alternatively, obfuscate with complications that ignore the truth.

follow Johnny Leavesley on Twitter @ Johnnyleavesley; read more at telegraph.co.uk/ opinion

We have not left the EU, three years on. Debate since the referendum has been an ear-splitting echolalia posing as argument. No wonder Leavers feel patronised and lied to. A revocation of Article 50 or a customs union soft deal will see the Brexit Party taking votes from both main parties for the foreseeable future. If the Conservatives want to be the senior party to their estranged Brexit cousins then some sort of practical accommodation with them is needed. A healthy democracy requires two centre parties plausibly able to win mandates and govern. We have had Conservatives and Labour both dominated by liberals for many years, but the centre cannot hold. We now seem to have a Marxist opposition and a single-issue protest platform replacing that consensus. The future may be too volatile to predict.

Several large Conservative donors I know have been withholding their money and are itching to give to the Brexit Party. My advice to them has been, and is, to hesitate. Their loyalty is deep, but tempered by realism. There comes a point when reality has to be acknowledged and an electoral pact needs to be considered soon.