Scotland’s deficit figures ‘argue case for the Union’
Dividend of almost £2,000 for every Scot shows they are better off sticking with UK, say SNP’S opponents
SCOTLAND’S deficit is the equivalent of more than half the shortfall for the entire UK thanks to public spending being £1,600 higher per person, according to official figures published yesterday that damage Nicola Sturgeon’s independence case.
The annual Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) report found the Scottish deficit was £12.6billion in 2018-19, compared with £23.5 billion for the UK as a whole.
The deficit was equivalent to 7 per cent of Scotland’s GDP, a slight improvement on the previous year but more than six times higher than the Uk-wide figure of only 1.1 per cent.
Alister Jack, the Scottish Secretary, said it showed Scots benefited from a record “Union dividend” of almost £2,000 each as they receive £1,661 per head more public spending than the UK average while paying £307 less tax.
The Tories said the key report – published by Ms Sturgeon’s government – showed Scotland had “dodged a bullet” by rejecting independence in 2014 and challenged her to drop her plans for another referendum next year.
Derek Mackay, the SNP’S finance minister, insisted the record spending and average lower tax-take in Scotland did not represent a good deal and a “better” outcome could be achieved by separating from the UK.
He insisted the figures were irrelevant to an independent Scotland’s future finances, but the impartial Institute for Fiscal Studies said they gave “an indication of the challenges” that would have to be faced at the outset. Mr Mackay was forced to unveil the document without Ms Sturgeon, who has presented every GERS report since becoming First Minister in 2014 but chose to skip the event to campaign in a Holyrood by-election in Shetland.
Scotland’s deficit was equivalent to 53.6 per cent of the UK’S, despite it having only 8.3 per cent of the population. The previous year, the deficit was around a third of the UK’S.
Murdo Fraser, the Scottish Tories’ shadow finance minister, said: “These figures reveal an enormous gap between what Scotland spends and what it raises in tax. Had we followed Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon’s advice in 2014 and backed independence, Scotland would now be facing up to an unprecedented financial black hole.”
Mr Jack said: “Today’s GERS figures show clearly how Scotland benefits from being part of a strong UK with every man, woman and child in Scotland receiving a ‘Union dividend’ of nearly £2,000 a year.”
Total public spending for Scotland was estimated at £75.3billion, an increase of 2.5 per cent on last year and the equivalent of £13,854 per person.
That is 13.6 per cent more than the £12,193 average spend across the UK as a whole. The spending gap increased from 12.7 per cent the previous year.
It estimated total public sector revenue in Scotland is £62.7billion, includ- ing a geographical share of North Sea oil and gas. This is the equivalent of £11,531 per person in Scotland, compared with the UK average of £11,838. Scotland’s deficit fell from the £13.8bil- lion recorded in 2017-8, when it was proportionally four times higher than the UK figure. However, the country’s 7 per cent deficit still dwarfs that of every EU member state, with Cyprus (4.8 per cent) and Romania (3 per cent) the closest. An analysis by Strathclyde University’s Fraser of Allander Institute said it “tells us little about the long-term finances of an independent Scotland”.