Afd’s failure to land killer blow buys chancellor a little breathing space

Angela Merkel will have slept a little easier last night after her allies managed to pull off something of a last-minute escape in the regional elections.

While the nationalist Alternative for Germany party (AFD) managed to inflict losses on Mrs Merkel’s party and on her coalition partners, it failed to

Holding Saxony will ease anxieties that Annegret Kramp-karrenbauer is not up to the job

land a decisive blow against either. That could ease the pressure that was threatening to plunge Mrs Merkel’s government into crisis just as the Brexit deadline looms.

The fact that her Christian Democrats (CDU) were able to hold on to the key state of Saxony will ease anxieties that Annegret Krampkarrenbauer, Mrs Merkel’s chosen successor as party leader, is not up to the job. Another disappointing result and there would have been calls for Ms Kramp-karrenbauer to step aside, potentially wrecking Mrs Merkel’s carefully laid plans for her succession.

But the unexpected success of the Social Democrats (SPD) in holding on to neighbouring Brandenburg may prove more significant for Mrs Merkel.

The SPD is set to choose a new leader and review its role in Mrs Merkel’s coalition.

A bad result in Brandenburg would have strengthened calls within the party to pull out of the coalition, leaving Mrs Merkel without a majority.

With the results of the first round in the party’s leadership election due on Oct 26, that could have left Mrs Merkel fending off a crisis at home as the Brexit deadline loomed.

Now she will hope the Brandenburg results will provide a boost for those among the SPD leadership candidates who favour remaining in her coalition. Although the AFD will seek to spin its gains as a success, the results were a disappointment for the party. If it cannot come first in its former communist eastern heartlands, there must be doubt over whether it can ever emerge as a national force.

Although it is currently the main opposition party in Berlin, that is only because the two biggest parties are in coalition. The AFD has suffered a difficult 12 months. It failed to make the hoped for breakthrough in the more populous west in last year’s Bavarian elections, and limped in fourth in this year’s Euro elections.

It was hoping to reverse that trend by coming first in at least one of Brandenburg or Saxony. A dramatic rise in turnout yesterday suggests many people may have been spurred to vote by polls showing the AFD neck-and-neck with the SPD in Brandenburg. The AFD has one more chance to make a breakthrough this year when the former communist state of Thuringia votes on Oct 27.