Tory rebels must back down or risk a ruthless general election purge

MPS at war with No 10 need to ask themselves what their insurrection will actually achieve

Three years ago, the British people were asked, “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?” They were not asked whether we should leave only once the Government had negotiated our terms of withdrawal. They were not asked whether we should leave only once our future relationship had been decided. Making the question conditional in this way would have been a signal to voters that ministers would not implement what they decided. With Britain unable to walk away with no deal, it would also have made a one-sided and punitive treaty inevitable.

Yet this is exactly what MPS will try, yet again, to do this week. First they will seek an emergency debate under Parliament’s Standing Order Number 24. Then they will use the debate to amend Standing Order Number 14, which allows the Government to control the Commons timetable. And then, having seized control of the order paper, they will legislate ordering the Prime Minister to reverse his policy. They will instruct him to extend, with the EU’S agreement, the

Article 50 deadline and prevent a no-deal Brexit on October 31.

Several known unknowns could scupper their plans. They might fail to secure the emergency debate, although with John Bercow in the Speaker’s chair, this is highly unlikely. They might fail to amend Standing Order Number 14, but with so many Tory rebels this seems improbable. They might pass their legislation in the Commons, yet find themselves filibustered in the Lords. But peers could sit through the weekend to create time to approve the bill before the PM can prorogue Parliament and kill off incomplete legislation.

None the less, with all this talk about process – not to mention hysteria about prorogation – we are in danger of missing the wood for the trees.

For there is a simple question that Tory rebels need to answer. They say they respect the referendum result. They say they do not want to stop Brexit. They say they just want us to leave with a good deal. But what do they hope their rebellion will achieve this week?

Consider what will happen if they get their way. Presumably, they expect ministers to return to the negotiating table in Brussels. But why would the EU offer any changes to the existing deal if it knows that Parliament is unwilling to allow no deal? The warning from the EU’S chief negotiator Michel Barnier yesterday – insisting that alternative arrangements to the backstop can be discussed only once the existing Withdrawal Agreement has been approved – may reflect nothing more than the fact he has not been given an updated remit by the European Council. But it is also a reminder that without Britain credibly threatening to walk away from the talks, the Europeans will not consider changes to the Withdrawal Agreement nor to the backstop.

Pro-european Tories are normally as keen as French mustard to accept what Brussels says at face value. Yet in this case they seem to believe the EU will do the opposite of what its representatives say. The only alternative explanation is they believe that the existing Withdrawal Agreement – complete with the backstop that Boris Johnson rightly calls anti-democratic – can win the support of the House of Commons. Yet the Withdrawal Agreement has been rejected by MPS three times already. They have no solution.

In contrast with their vacillation and vacuity, the Prime Minister at least knows his preferred solution. He might not use his predecessor’s discredited phrase, but his belief is that no deal is better than a bad deal. By making it plain he is preparing the country to leave the EU without a deal on October 31, he is making it more likely, in fact, that he will win a better deal from Brussels. And behind the scenes, he is proposing alternatives to the backstop to Europe’s leaders. While the response from Dublin has been cool, the hearing he received in Berlin and Paris was notably warmer. He might yet succeed, but if he fails he is happy to leave without a deal.

Yet if the rebels get their way this week we will go back to square one. The threat of no deal will disappear, and the incentive for Brussels to compromise will evaporate. The rebels will trap us in the EU for several more months, with no way out.

The opposition parties would be more than happy with this outcome. The Liberal Democrats want to hoover up Remain voters and push for a second referendum. Many Labour MPS – including the shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer – desire a second referendum and for Britain to stay in the EU. Many Labour MPS who say they respect the referendum result, like Lisa Nandy, seem determined to keep voting against every proposed way out. Jeremy Corbyn, desperately trying to plaster over Labour’s divisions, wants to keep the onus on the Conservatives.

But what about the Tory rebels? If they defeat the Government this week, the only remaining solution for the Prime Minister might be to hold an election. Having been accused, ridiculously, of staging a coup d’état last week, the PM could choose to administer a coup de grâce to this sorry Parliament of Remainers and Remoaners.

Boris would lead the Tories into this Brexit election with a clear promise to win a better deal from Brussels or leave with no deal at all. And he would need to be ruthless. Despite Philip Hammond’s squeals, nobody opposing Johnson’s policy could possibly stand as an official Conservative candidate. If they did, the Commons could still block him even if he wins a clear mandate for no deal.

And so we return to the question facing the rebels. What in the end do they hope their actions will achieve? The purgatory of ongoing EU membership? A second referendum and all the division that would bring? Or a general election presenting a choice between Boris’s no-deal strategy and the crazy communism of Jeremy Corbyn? The rebels might not like Boris’s policy, but they need to think their actions through very carefully. The stakes could scarcely be higher. For the sake of their country, and the fortunes of their party, they need to back down now.