In a choice between revoke and no deal, a clean Brexit will triumph

Voters know the damage to democracy of staying in would outweigh no-deal economic disruption

Ano-deal Brexit will cause “the collapse” of the United Kingdom, Jean-claude Juncker claimed this week. Heaping blame on Britain for the lack of a Withdrawal Agreement, the European Commission president dubbed our June 2016 referendum result “the original sin”.

The UK’S Brexit negotiations are in turmoil – Boris Johnson endured a telephone drubbing from German Chancellor Angela Merkel and there’s no breakthrough on the vexed Irish border question – ahead of next Thursday’s crunch Brussels summit. Hemmed in by the Benn Act, and with no agreement in the offing, the Prime Minister could be forced to ask the EU for an extension beyond October 31, despite his “do or die” promise.

Having called the biggest act of democracy in British history a “sin”, Juncker and Co could yet go further – granting an extension of just a few weeks, denying Mr Johnson the time for a general election he now looks odds-on to win.

Restoring the Commons majority Theresa May lost would put Mr Johnson in a much stronger position – which is why Labour, and now it seems Brussels, don’t want to give him the chance. So No 10 could be lumbered with the overwhelmingly pro-remain Parliament that’s the root cause of this Brexit impasse.

But an election cannot be held off for ever, and as we approach the final Brexit showdown, with the chances of a deal getting slimmer, opinions are hardening on both sides. A stark choice is emerging between a no-deal Brexit and revoking Article 50 altogether. And if that is the choice we will ultimately face, the signs are that no deal would win.

The reality is that a no-deal withdrawal is far from the cataclysmic outcome so often claimed. Since June 2016, the UK economy has shown serious resilience – against a constant drumbeat of media negativity. The Treasury’s pre-referendum scaremongering – a Brexit vote would spark “an immediate and profound economic shock” – was proved laughably wrong. The British economy stood firm, recording solid growth and high employment as our public finances steadily improved.

Project Fear is in overdrive again, issuing blood-curdling warnings against a no-deal Brexit. The former chancellor Philip Hammond claimed that leaving without the EU’S permission would cost Britain as much as £90 billion, doing damage “equivalent to the 2008 financial crash”.

This meltdown scenario, based on those same 2016 Treasury forecasts, makes no sense. EU trade accounts for barely a tenth of the UK economy, with just 8 per cent of our firms doing business with the 27-member bloc. The idea that Brexit would cause a shock equal to the largest peace-time slowdown in a century, when the entire world economy slumped, is absurd.

No deal is constantly demonised by those who “respect the referendum result” but are actually Brexitblockers. Preparations have been made on all sides to minimise any disruption. Agreements have been struck so exports will keep flowing and planes will fly. Phone roaming charges won’t change and trade agreements with our most important global customers have been sealed or are in the works.

What the doom-mongers don’t mention is that no deal could mean lower prices for food and consumer goods like clothing and footwear – if the UK drops high tariffs on imports from outside the EU which, for now, Brussels forces us to impose. It is rarely acknowledged that Dublin has previously admitted there won’t be new physical infrastructure in sensitive locations, and customs checks can indeed happen away from the Irish border.

The UK’S EU exports have fallen from 60 per cent of goods sold abroad 20 years ago to around 40 per cent now, despite the much-vaunted single market and customs union it would apparently be so disastrous to leave under a “clean-break” Brexit. And non-eu trade is now not only the majority of our overseas commerce, but is fast-growing, in surplus and conducted largely under World Trade Organisation rules – the same rules covering the majority of all trade everywhere, which we’re constantly told would be so bad.

Polls suggest City investors would much rather a no-deal Brexit than Jeremy Corbyn taking over as prime minister – and rightly so. A Corbyn government would cause havoc, doing far more damage than the temporary blip of no deal – yet that is the outcome made more likely by the UK’S Remainer corporate establishment, helped by gloomy Remainer economists.

Meanwhile, there’s a growing desire to just get Brexit done. A new Comres poll shows support for no deal rather than extending, should the talks fail – with opinion splitting 52 to 48 per cent, along familiar lines when you strip out don’t-knows. Faced with a choice between no deal and revoke, Yougov polling shows that no deal wins again.

If Brexit is further delayed by Parliament and the courts, Mr Johnson will probably push for an election, fighting on a no-deal ticket – otherwise Conservative votes would haemorrhage to Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party. After all, while striving for a Withdrawal Agreement but making clear that no deal is the alternative, support for his Government has surged.

The Conservatives are now at 38 per cent in the polls, up two percentage points over the last two weeks, according to Opinium, with Labour trailing on 23 per cent. The Lib Dems are at 15 per cent – five points down over the same period, as their revoke strategy loses ground.

Leaving the EU with no deal doesn’t imply a bonfire of social protections or a less progressive society, as Remainers claim. All that is for a future, sovereign British Parliament to decide, outside the EU.

And as for Mr Juncker’s claim that no deal would split up the UK, more Scots voted to Leave in the 2016 referendum than voted for the SNP in the 2017 general election. Mr Johnson may not be popular north of the border, but the Union is – and, with Labour threatening an SNP alliance in return for another independence referendum, the Conservatives could do well in Scotland, too.

No deal isn’t ideal, but any temporary damage to our economy would be far outstripped by permanent damage to our democracy if the 2016 referendum is ignored. That’s why, if the EU doesn’t budge, and agreement isn’t possible, no deal is the electoral strategy that makes sense for Boris Johnson and Britain.