An agenda designed to win an election

Conceivably, the Queen yesterday opened the shortest parliamentary session since September 1948. That lasted just 10 days after the Labour government deliberately curtailed proceedings in order to overcome objections to a new Parliament Act in the Lords. Depending on what happens with Brexit, there is every expectation at Westminster of a general election, possibly as soon as next month, rendering much of what was announced yesterday otiose until the voters have had their say.

If the State Opening served any purpose beyond the ceremonial it was to act as a shop window for the “One Nation” policies the Conservatives under Boris Johnson will put before the country when the election comes. But the fact remains that a lengthy programme containing 26 Bills is predicated entirely upon the first sentence of the Queen’s Speech actually being realised: that the UK leaves the EU 16 days from now.

We should know whether that is going to happen by the end of the week. If there is a deal between the UK and the EU acceptable to Parliament, Mr Johnson will have fulfilled his overriding priority to take the country out by October 31. If there isn’t, he will be forced to ask for an extension of the UK’S membership until January 31 at the earliest.

Whether there is to be a general election in the meantime depends on whether Labour opts for one or decides to seek support for a second referendum instead. If the latter, Mr Johnson will find himself still in office but unable to get any of his measures through Parliament until Brexit is settled. This may suit the Prime Minister tactically in that there is much in the Queen’s Speech designed to appeal to voters who might in the past have favoured Labour’s social policies but who are weary of Jeremy Corbyn’s Brexit vacillations and are looking to switch allegiance.

The policies outlined yesterday were intended to establish a new centre ground: tougher law and order measures, restrictions on immigration but with post‑brexit protections for EU citizens, a rail and transport shake‑up, reforms of social care and more money for the NHS, hospitals and schools.

The agenda contains seven criminal justice Bills, including measures to ensure the most serious offenders serve longer custodial terms, harsher penalties for foreign national offenders who try to return to the UK after being deported and greater protection for police officers.

There were also measures intended to address the growing pressure, especially from the young, for eco‑friendly laws. An environment Bill will set legally binding “improvement targets” to reduce plastics, cut air pollution, restore biodiversity and improve water quality, while a separate animal welfare Bill would outlaw trophy hunting.

Reforms to the divorce laws to minimise the impact of family breakdown on children are also proposed, along with changes in employment law to give waiting staff a fairer share of tips. Another welcome proposal is to give the regulator greater powers to crack down on the irresponsible management of pension schemes.

At the heart of the Speech were seven Bills related to Brexit, including measures to establish new regulatory frameworks for fishing, farming, trade and financial services, and legislation to end freedom of movement and bring in a points‑based immigration system from 2021.

Opening the five‑day debate on the Address, the Prime Minister called it the basis for a “new age of opportunity” for the whole country, an open, global free trading UK with high wages and low taxes. But the reality that he was unwilling to acknowledge is that none of this can be done until Brexit is concluded and a new Parliament is constituted with a government majority.

That requires an election; and yet so far Labour has declined to back one despite having been given two opportunities to do so. On this issue, Jeremy Corbyn – who in the Commons once again demonstrated his tenuous hold both on political reality and on the reins of his leadership – looks an increasingly isolated figure.

Most of his senior colleagues, including John Mcdonnell, the shadow chancellor, are pressing for a second referendum and fear an early election will be a disaster, with the party trailing in the polls and Mr Corbyn’s personal popularity at an historic low for an opposition leader.

MPS will vote on the Queen’s Speech programme next week and, with no majority, the chances must be high that the Government will lose, an eventuality that in the past has forced prime ministers from office. Mr Johnson says he will not resign because that would let Mr Corbyn into No 10.

Yet if Labour defeats the Queen’s Speech, the logic of its position must be to support the general election it has demanded for so long. The party cannot keep ducking this challenge and retain any credibility.

The policies are intended to establish a new centre ground: tough on law and order, more money for the NHS

If Labour defeats the Queen’s Speech, the logic of its position must be to support an election