The PM’S approach has been vindicated

Whatever happens next, the past few days of frenetic talks to try to reach a new Brexit deal have been a vindication of Boris Johnson’s policy. He came to office in July determined to secure a different arrangement from that negotiated by his predecessor but was told it was impossible. The EU, said his critics, will simply not reopen the Withdrawal Agreement and especially not for the man they blame for Brexit. But they did, as he said they would; and his endeavours are bearing fruit.

The Prime Minister’s determination has paid political dividends with a surge in support for the Conservatives in the opinion polls. A few months ago the party was on its knees, registering just 8 per cent in the European elections and facing an existential meltdown. Now the Tories are well ahead of Labour, even in London, according to one survey.

Were Mr Johnson to get Brexit over the line, the Opposition would be plunged into disarray, which is why they will try to block anything he agrees with Brussels. Were he to fail, he can at least campaign in the general election that must follow as having tried his hardest, only to be thwarted by those who want to reverse the referendum result.

The Prime Minister has always been clear that he wants to leave the EU with a deal, even if he was prepared to do so without one. That negotiating stance was seriously undermined by the so-called Benn Act, which left open the prospect of an extension that Mr Johnson had sought to close off in order to focus attention on the need to sort this out now. That may yet prove a barrier to ending this protracted saga.

Yet even with his hands tied, Mr Johnson is now tantalisingly close to meeting his October 31 pledge. If he does pull it off and get it through Parliament, then today’s summit in Brussels – his first as Prime Minister – will be the last a British leader will ever attend. Much depends on whether the Prime Minister and his negotiating team have succeeded in squaring the circle of the Irish border to the satisfaction of the DUP, Dublin and Brussels.

All along the EU has insisted that Northern Ireland must remain in the single market and the customs union. The Government has insisted that the province cannot be treated differently from the rest of the UK. That position began to shift recently when Mr Johnson proposed that Northern Ireland should stay in the single market regulatory structure for most goods, and the DUP, which has a confidence and supply agreement with the Conservatives, went along with it.

But the EU and Ireland then pressed for further concessions that would effectively put a customs border down the Irish Sea. This is anathema to the DUP and many Tory Brexiteers who take their lead from their Ulster counterparts. The EU has used the Good Friday Agreement (GFA) to bolster its negotiating position by claiming that the two parts of the island need to be treated as a single area if peace is to be maintained. But Unionists point out that the GFA also requires that any changes to the status of Northern Ireland must be agreed on a cross-community basis – the principle of consent. If the deal being drafted undermines that, the DUP cannot sign up to it without losing credibility.

That would seriously reduce the chances of getting it through the House of Commons. Even though the DUP only has 10 votes, its position will also determine the approach taken by up to 20 hardline Tory Brexiteers. However, if they can live with it then it would be unconscionable for the House of Commons to reject a deal that has been given the imprimatur of the principal protagonists.

It would demonstrate that Labour is simply objecting for the sake of it and finding any excuse not to back an agreement reached by a Conservative Government. Furthermore, many MPS just wish to overturn the 2016 referendum result and will never be content until they have done so.

As Theresa May found, Mr Johnson may yet discover that getting a deal with the EU is the easy bit; getting it through Parliament is the hard part. If he cannot convince the DUP and the so-called Spartans, with no majority, Mr Johnson would have to rely on Remainer Tories ejected from the party and Opposition MPS to win a vote at a special session of Parliament on Saturday.

He may yet be forced into a delay, which would be a political setback but not the end of the world. If absolutely necessary, taking more time to secure a good deal is better than rushing to meet an artificial deadline and making ill-advised concessions that cause long–term damage to relationships between allies. But that assumes any extension is used to ensure that all the loose ends are tied up and the complex customs, regulatory and VAT arrangements understood.

Remainers, however, still hold out the hope that they can reverse Brexit with another referendum. This is why Mr Johnson was right to commit to a “do or die” policy of Brexit by October 31 to end the uncertainty that has hit economic activity and harmed diplomatic relations. The Opposition will be reluctant to give Mr Johnson a political victory by delivering Brexit, as promised, by October 31. Yet at this pivotal moment in the country’s history, is it too much to call on all MPS to put tribalism to one side and do what is right for the country?