Could this be remembered as the moment common sense prevailed?
The past few years have underlined the futility of making confident pronouncements about politics. But – whisper it quietly! – yesterday was a victory for Brexit and common sense.
First came the routing of Extinction Rebellion, when East End commuters finally fought back against the environmental activists who had targeted the Tube network at Canning Town station. Then, moments after the Battle of Canning Town, came glad tidings for Brexiteers in the shape of an agreement between EU and UK negotiators. The PM has achieved what many Remainers claimed was impossible weeks ago; a viable Brexit deal uniting the disparate wings of his party. Unlike Theresa May’s continuity offering, which would have left Britain a rule taker and regulatory satellite of the EU, these proposals represent a clean break from Brussels. They would ensure that Britain is no longer bound by EU laws, taxes or European Court of Justice jurisdiction. Gone – for now at least – are the legally binding “level playing field” commitments which would have scuppered future trade deals.
Britain is now 3/1 odds on to leave the EU by Oct 31. The pound is surging. O, frabjous day!
Though his deal could still be rejected by Parliament, Boris Johnson has pulled off a remarkable political coup, confounding the expectations of the declinist Remainers who have, throughout this process, managed to be spectacularly wrong about almost everything.
During the leadership race, Johnson was pilloried for suggesting that he could persuade the EU to reopen the Withdrawal Agreement and abolish the backstop. No deal was seen as a toothless threat of national self-harm, rather than a serious warning of economic disruption on both sides. What incentive, many argued, was there for the EU to grant further concessions?
The Irish government, we were told, would never engage in bilateral negotiations and the very idea that different leadership might yield different results was dismissed as “unicorn thinking”.
Contrary to these assumptions, EU negotiators moved when faced with a determined Brexiteer government. By being clear in his aims, holding firm in his opening offers during the leadership contest and at party conference, Johnson has extracted serious concessions from the EU that were refused to May. The EU has abandoned the Uk-wide backstop, and given Northern Ireland politicians the chance to reject the new arrangement in future.
These proposals will be unpalatable to some unionists, but it is nonsensical to claim this is merely “reheated Mayism”. Customs checks in a Northern Ireland that remains legally within UK customs territory may not be ideal but it is worlds away from the economic straitjacket May envisaged.
It’s no fun being proved wrong – so we shouldn’t be surprised by desperate rearguard attempts to reframe the debate. Just days ago, many Remainers were sceptical that Team Johnson were approaching the EU in good faith, dismissing their efforts as “sham negotiations”. Yet within hours of yesterday’s announcement, this narrative had morphed into claims the Government is still plotting a no-deal outcome.
Could yesterday be remembered as the day common sense finally prevailed? It’s too early to open the bottle of fizz I’ve reserved for Brexit day, but it may be time to put it – tentatively – on ice.