The battle is on to round up the doubters and get this deal through
Frantic efforts are afoot behind the scenes as MPS pore over the small print ahead of tomorrow’s crucial sitting
They plan to spend the next 24 hours poring over the details and seeking legal advice, but for the so-called Spartans the question of whether to support Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal has become a purely political one.
The EU may have ruled out extending Article 50 in the face of the deal agreed at yesterday’s Brussels summit, but for Tory members of the European Research Group, it is no longer a case of deal or no deal – but deal or no Brexit.
For if they vote down Mr Johnson’s proposals tomorrow, they know they not only risk a collapse in popular support for the Prime Minister but they risk opening the door to a Corbyn-led coalition calling for a second referendum.
As one prominent Brexiteer put it last night: “We can mug up as much detail as we like – but do we risk blowing the whole deal? This is going to be the last ever visit of a PM to an EU summit. We are drinking in the last-chance saloon. It’s between this or losing this whole thing.”
Emotionally, nothing has changed since the “MV3” that 28 Spartans refused to vote for in March. As Christopher Chope, who was among the three-time Tory rebels, pointed out: “The conflict is between what’s less than perfect versus losing Brexit altogether.”
For ERG members, the former prime minister’s warning about making perfect the enemy of the good continues to ring in their ears.
But politically, everything has changed. Not only has a new Brexit deal been negotiated against the odds by a Brexiteer, rather than a Remainer PM, but as all the ERG members contacted by The Daily Telegraph admitted yesterday, both the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration are an improvement on what Mrs May managed to agree with Brussels.
Summing up the mood, Andrew Bridgen, previously a staunch Spartan, indicated he would now be willing to back the deal, saying: “The political declaration is the important thing to me. There’s a lot in the Withdrawal Agreement that I don’t like but with the time Boris was given, what more could he do? It wouldn’t surprise me if the ERG splits different ways on this but the country has had enough. We’ve got to get Brexit done.”
At the time of going to press, Spartans, including Andrea Jenkyns and David Jones, look set to back the deal along with those Brexiteers who were previously opposed but have since joined the Government, like Priti Patel, the Home Secretary; Theresa Villiers, the Environment Secretary; and James Duddridge, under-secretary for exiting the EU.
Ms Patel was last night described as “man marking” influential Brexiteers like Owen Paterson and Iain Duncansmith, who have privately expressed serious concerns about the deal while publicly insisting they remain undecided. Jacob Rees-mogg, the Leader of the House of Commons and formerly chairman of the ERG, is also said to be “working on” Spartans ahead of the ERG’S next meeting tomorrow morning.
It came amid reports that some senior Brexiteers felt “bounced” by the Government, with one senior Spartan reportedly overheard on his mobile phone in the Commons ranting: “If you try and co-opt me, I’ll f--- over the Government, the Prime Minister … don’t push me.”
As a former Northern Ireland secretary, Mr Paterson is said to be concerned about the DUP’S lack of willingness to back the deal.
Mr Duncan-smith is seeking assurances that the UK will be protected during the implementation period. “I need to convince myself that if I vote for it, it delivers a free-trade deal to a sovereign nation by December next year.”
The former party leader was called by Mr Johnson yesterday in a bid to persuade him to publicly back the deal before tomorrow.
No10 is understood to be increasingly frustrated that ERG members are not building more momentum behind the deal in a bid to win greater support from Labour MPS representing Leave constituencies.
A Downing Street insider said: “This deal is as good as it gets. It’s not helpful for Brexiteers to be waiting until Saturday morning to make their minds up. The Prime Minister needs their support now.”
The DUP’S stance makes the parliamentary arithmetic more challenging for the Government, whose majority is in negative digits. A spokesman for Mr Johnson said he would be doing “everything in his power” to persuade the DUP and MPS to walk through the Aye lobby.
“There’s no better salesman for a deal in the Conservative Party than Boris Johnson, and there is no better deal for Brexit than the one Boris Johnson is trying to sell,” he said.
As soon as the deal was announced yesterday, Michael Gove, the no-deal Cabinet minister, convened a mass meeting of 180 Tory backbenchers in a room off Westminster Hall to win early support, joined by Ms Patel, Dominic Raab, the Foreign Secretary; Geoffrey Cox, the Attorney General; and Nicky Morgan, the Culture Secretary.
Sources said that Steve Baker, the ERG chairman; and Mark Francois, his deputy, both spoke warmly about the deal.
Their sentiments were echoed by lifelong Eurosceptic Bernard Jenkin, who last night told The Daily
Telegraph: “I am delighted that this is a substantially different deal from the previous one. Boris succeeded in reopening the deal, when he was told at first that it would be impossible.
“The Northern Ireland part is substantially different, and the part on the future trade relationship points clearly to the free-trade deal that we want. I will be studying the small print over the next two days, before making a decision on how I will vote.”
After an hour-long question-andanswer session, Mr Gove and Mrs Morgan headed to a nearby room to help Robert Buckland, the Justice Secretary, to brief 11 out of the 20 whipless former Tory MPS on the deal.
The pincer movement was intended to allay fears among Brexiteers that Remainers like Sir Oliver Letwin were planning to hijack the legislation with a series of unhelpful amendments.
By late afternoon ERG officers were in a briefing, with Downing Street lawyers going over the fine print of the deal.
As in 2016, the issue of sovereignty remains key to Brexiteer thinking. But unlike three years ago, the Tories not only risk losing control of Brexit but the Conservative Party’s future.