Win or lose tomorrow, if the PM calls an election he is now unstoppable

Against the odds, the Prime Minister has kept his word and delivered the real Brexit deal

After more than three years of debacle and disappointment, it can be hard to recognise a genuine breakthrough. “The ‘new deal’ is not Brexit,” declared Nigel Farage, a little too soon after the details were published. In the past, his instinct would have been correct. The Chequers agreement, the subsequent White Paper and Theresa May’s thrice-defeated deal all fell dismally short of a plan to leave the European Union in a meaningful sense. But this time, it’s different. What Boris Johnson has negotiated in Brussels does seem to be the real Brexit deal.

Freedom of movement? Britain will take back full control of its borders after a 14-month transition period. The money to Brussels? It’s being phased out, so we save some £70 billion over the next decade. The red tape? The nasty “level playing field” commitments have been moved into the coming free trade negotiation. Global trade deals? We could start negotiating properly next month and the whole of the UK would be able to benefit from any free trade agreements from January 2021. Out, and into the world.

For our part, plenty of concessions have been offered. The biggest is a compromise on Northern Ireland, allowing an all-ireland economy with regulations set by Brussels – for as long as Stormont wants this to be the case. In theory, this keeps democratic control in the UK. There’s no unionist veto over the new arrangement, which enrages the DUP. Then there’s a slew of smaller points, important to Brussels: we agree never to tax Peter Mandelson’s pension, and so on. But this is the price of agreement, the currency of compromise. Under the circumstances, it’s about as good a deal as we could ask for.

It might get better still. Jean-claude Juncker gave a hint of it yesterday: if MPS vote down the deal, he said, “there will be no prolongation”. So if Juncker was speaking for the EU rather than just making it up (it’s always hard to tell) then it’s game over for Parliament’s rebels. All of their elaborate plotting will have been for naught. Even if they force the Prime Minister to ask for an extension, the request would be rejected. It would mean that, when MPS meet tomorrow, they must go for one of only two options: this deal or no deal.

For his part, the Prime Minister does not expect Mr Juncker to ride to the rescue. Much as he’d love the EU to rule out an extension, his main hope for winning tomorrow’s vote is to win over the DUP. He doesn’t have a Plan B at the moment. His aides have calculated that, even with his Irish allies, the best they could hope for is to have the deal passing by a majority of one. Jeremy Corbyn is likely to expel any Labour MP who supports the Government, not so much out of vengeance but because he wants them gone anyway. Sacking them now would save him the time of purging them later.

But the Brexit question has suddenly become a lot trickier for Parliament’s Remainers. Until now, they have said they’d force the Government to ask for an extension of EU membership to save the country from the calamity of a no-deal Brexit. But now there is a deal, and one even Juncker is urging them to accept, how to claim the moral high ground? It will be harder to conceal their real, and quite justifiable, fear: that if a Brexit deal is approved, they’d lose their excuse for blocking a general election. And if Boris calls that election, he’d be unstoppable.

Their hope was to humiliate him in the eyes of Brexit Party voters by showing him unable to deliver on his word. But he has done precisely what he promised: agree a proper Brexit deal in time for October 31. Farage was sounding a bit desperate yesterday, saying the deal is a sellout but not explaining why. The fish? Nope: Britain becomes an independent coastal state again after the transition period. “Nigel can be prone to making pronouncements without thinking,” one of his former aides tells me. “He has called this wrong. Most people will see this as a decent Brexit deal. His place in history is assured: he should take the win.”

Farage’s supporters are peeling off anyway. About half of the Tory voters who defected to the Brexit Party have now returned. The setbacks of the last few weeks seem to have only underlined the PM’S determination in the eyes of Brexiteers, and others. Boris is now comfortably leading the opinion polls: ahead in London, ahead with the under-25s, ahead with working-class voters. His overall strategy – focusing on regional inequality, NHS spending and Brexit – is staking out a new centre ground.

This is why Tories are calling a parliamentary vote on the deal without any coherent plan to win it. It’s a bet that the public – exhausted by this drama – will see a chance to end it. And then blame the opposition parties if it’s dragged out for another six months. “The longer they refuse to grant a general election, the greater the public anger and the worse it will be for them,” says one Cabinet member. Business, now, will be asking for the deal to be done. Even a second referendum is not quite the threat it once was: in a choice between Remain and the new Brexit deal, the latter should now win comfortably.

For his part, the Prime Minister intends to keep wooing the DUP until the last minute, and was even at it last night. (The last few days have taught him that miracles can happen.) Most of his colleagues have given up hope, but they have consolation. When the next election comes, it will be impossible to accuse the Tories of being ideologues craving the martyrdom of a no-deal Brexit. Nor can they be accused of lacking the ability to negotiate an agreement.

He could have refused to sign, and accepted the DUP’S veto – but that would be playing it safe. The Prime Minister believes in boldness and in gambles. His latest gamble is that, win or lose in Parliament tomorrow, he’s now firmly on course to a general election victory.