Here we go again
The whens, whys and wherefores of what would be the first winter election in nearly 100 years and going to the polling station on a Thursday
Q When could an election happen?
A No 10 would like to hold a “late November election”, with Nov 28 pencilled as the preferred date. But it has now missed the deadline for this.
Parliament has to, by law, be dissolved 25 working days before the country goes to the polls. For a general election before the end of November, MPS would need to trigger it this week. If Brussels approves a Brexit extension to Jan 31, Boris Johnson is expected to make his third attempt to get an election motion passed through Parliament. The earliest this could happen is now Nov 29 – and only if MPS vote for it tomorrow, not currently a sitting day in the House, so that would need changing.
Q How is an election triggered?
A There are two ways to get to an early general election under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act.
Mr Johnson could secure a two-thirds majority in the Commons on a motion to trigger one. The motion is not amendable, and the PM is allowed to choose a polling day. An election can also be triggered by a confidence motion, which must pass by a simple majority. If no party can form a majority or coalition within 14 days, a general election is called. Another option would be to pass a one-line Bill calling an election on a specific date – although this could be amended by opposition MPS to include votes for 16-yearolds, or a second referendum.
Q Is a December election likely?
A Yes, although there is a split in the Government about this, with many warning against a winter vote. One Cabinet minister told The
Telegraph they wanted the election “this side of Christmas”. If Parliament goes for a December election, it would be the first since 1923. That does not set a great example for Mr Johnson. Stanley Baldwin, the Conservative prime minister, saw his majority wiped out, leaving a hung Parliament. A vote next week could lead to an early December election. But anything later is likely to fall into the new year. January is one option although it is not a preferred one as the fiveweek period running up to it clashes with the holiday season.
Q What are the logistical problems?
A Governments tend not to hold elections in the winter since they often produce lower voter turnout and work against the incumbents. Cold weather, preparations for Christmas and fewer daylight hours make it harder for party volunteers to campaign on the doorstep and for voters to get to polling stations. The Tories could be more likely to suffer from a December election, since low temperatures disproportionately affect older voters, a key Tory demographic.
Q Does it have to fall on a Thursday?
A Elections have traditionally fallen on a Thursday and the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 sets the next date of the general election at five-year intervals on the first Thursday of May. However, if an earlier general election is triggered outside the set period, the Government can choose another day of the week for it.