Trump leaves a hole in the Gulf for UK to fill
Britain’s new Bahrain base gives us an opportunity to replace the US and lead a naval coalition
If the key aim of any conflict is to keep your enemies guessing, then President Donald Trump has mastered the art of sowing confusion in the ranks of America’s adversaries.
He began, earlier this month, by wanting everyone to believe Washington was ending its longstanding military commitment to its Arab allies by withdrawing its troops from Syria at the earliest available opportunity. The president’s attitude towards Washington’s involvement in two decades of conflicts that have cost the American taxpayer, by his estimation, a staggering $8 trillion was encapsulated in one of his more forthright tweets: “Let someone else fight over this long bloodstained sand.”
Yet, at the same time that Mr Trump posted this tweet, we now know he had authorised a team of US special forces to carry out a daring raid into the badlands of north-west Syria, eliminating the notorious terrorist Abu Bakr al-baghdadi.
Nor, having basked in the reflected glory of the successful Baghdadi operation, has Mr Trump shown any inclination to use the terrorist leader’s demise as the moment to end America’s fight against Islamist extremism. The president has convened a conference of the anti-isil coalition in Washington next month to plot the next stage of the campaign.
Mr Trump’s contradictory statements have undoubtedly wrongfooted Washington’s foes. But they have also caused much bemusement among America’s allies, not least in other parts of the Middle East where the Iran issue is seen as being every bit as important as the campaign to destroy Isil.
Thanks to Mr Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, Tehran has embarked on a blatant campaign of intimidation against pro-western Arab states in the Gulf, culminating with last month’s skilfully executed joint drone and cruise missile strike on Saudi Arabia’s Aramco oil production facilities.
No one in the Gulf is in any doubt that the attack, which temporarily cut Saudi’s oil production by a third and caused a brief spike in oil prices, was orchestrated by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. Given that Iran’s aggression is directly related to Mr Trump’s robust stances towards Tehran, the Gulf states, understandably, now expect Washington to come to their aid.
Mr Trump’s ambivalence about America’s future commitment to the region is therefore a source of some concern for Gulf leaders, so that Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is keen to exploit any opportunity to replace America’s influence in the region, received a warm welcome during his recent visits to Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.
The deepening concern among Gulf states as to Mr Trump’s intentions has been very much in evidence this week at the BIDEC defence conference in Bahrain, where military officials from the region have been giving serious consideration as to how best protect themselves against further acts of Iranian aggression.
The resolve of the Gulf states to defend their interests, irrespective of how Mr Trump intends to respond, was summed up by Sheikh Nasser bin Hamad al-khalifa, Bahrain’s impressive young national security advisor. Condemning the attacks on Saudi’s oil facilities, Sheikh Nasser stressed the importance of confronting countries like Iran that have sponsored terrorist groups, as well as posing a threat to global maritime trade.
Sheikh Nasser’s comments reflect a growing realisation among other Gulf leaders that they need to do more to protect their own interests, such as embracing new military technologies to counter Iranian drone and cyber attacks. Such an approach will be music to Mr Trump’s ears: he has frequently spoken of the need for Arab states to take more responsibility for defending their interests.
Given the uncertainty surrounding
Mr Trump’s position, there is also an opportunity for Britain to play a more prominent role in leading international efforts to protect Gulf shipping. Despite the Royal Navy’s well-documented shortage of warships, Britain this summer nevertheless managed to have more ships operating in the Gulf than the Americans, who kept their aircraft carriers out of harm’s way in the Indian Ocean.
This is one of the benefits of the Navy having its own naval base in Bahrain, which opened last year in the face of strong opposition from Whitehall mandarins, who were wary of making a long-term commitment to Britain’s allies in the region.
Having the base in Bahrain means the Navy can rotate crews through the Gulf rather than sending ships to and from Portsmouth, and will serve as an important resupply base for the new Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carriers once they become operational towards the end of next year.
If Mr Trump is serious about reducing Washington’s involvement in the region, there is an obvious leadership role for Britain to fulfil. When it comes to building an international naval coalition to protect Gulf shipping, many nations would feel far more reassured operating alongside the Royal Navy than risk being left in the lurch by Mr Trump.