A true genius or a gobby Aussie? Over to you, Eddie
Reputations of coach and players will be made or lost over 80 minutes in Yokohama
Eddie Jones will be regarded as the best coach in the history of rugby union if England win tomorrow. If they do not, and if South Africa upset the odds, people will probably remember him as “that gobby Australian”. That is how fickle sport is.
To look at it the same way, Warren Gatland will have been spot on if England fail to replicate the intensity of their semi-final performance. If they do, Gatland’s comments will look like seriously sour grapes. Not since 1995, when New Zealand played against the Springboks, have one side been so fancied to win the final.
And that is coming from me, one of the most pessimistic England supporters you will ever meet. I keep it that way because the feeling of satisfaction is bigger afterwards. The All Blacks should never, ever have lost the final 24 years ago. But they did. So often, finals come down to how you handle stress.
In the semi-final between Wales and South Africa this time, both teams went into their shells completely. They looked strangled by the occasion and by the stress.
Wales went wide twice early on and caused problems, nearly breaking South Africa when Josh Adams got outside S’bu Nkosi. Then they thought: “We can’t do that again.”
Jones is talking about freedom and ambition. When coaches speak like that, it usually feels like empty rhetoric – chat designed to con the opposition into opening up because that is what they want. This time, I genuinely think it is true. Jones deserves credit for his durability. He has taken flak that the press – including myself – have thrown his way. He has treated all that as outside noise and followed his own convictions with this England team.
He has taken the player pool in this country, which is bigger than anyone else’s, to where it should be all the time. And so, this becomes the blueprint for every World Cup from here on in for England. Eddie has not needed drastically to reinvent himself. That would be doing him a disservice. He has just trusted his own processes. He has learnt along the way, from the mistakes he has made and the wins he has had.
John Mitchell has been the missing piece of his jigsaw. When he came in, they suddenly became a little bit smarter and tougher. That is a skill of Eddie that Clive Woodward had, in fairness. Clive also changed up the coaching staff 18 months before the 2003 tournament. England will want low possession and high territory. You cannot really have that against South Africa because they do not seem to want the ball under Rassie Erasmus. I do not believe the Springboks will be able to stop England at the breakdown unless they bring on Francois Louw at half-time. And it might be too late even at that point. Pieter-steph du Toit will pile into rucks given the chance. But, if you do not give South Africa a defensive target, how can they impact your game?
That is why you look at England and put them as such massive favourites. The hordes of England fans that have paid the extortionate cost to get over to Japan this week will have gone there in anticipation of an England win.
I do not think there was the same conviction when the same pilgrimage happened in 2003. It was “well, we could win, and we’ve got Jonny Wilkinson”. It is brilliant that Jones has kept the same selection with Ben Spencer the only new face. Punters would have been amazed to see changes because of the performance against the All Blacks but he is obviously quite happy to tinker. England winning the World Cup again would be great, and not just because we would never have to hear Matt Dawson or Will Greenwood’s after-dinner stories or see Mark Regan parading his winner’s medal around rugby clubs across the country. We will not have to talk about 2003 and Sir Clive will be able to move on with his life and do something worthwhile. Some of England’s players will be written about as the best ever if they win tomorrow. You will have heard individual comparisons to 2003, I am sure – that is what happens in sport.
If they lose, it will feel like a meteor has hit them. And, in time to come, they will be merely a decent group with a few good players and some average ones.
It would be great, not just because we would never have to hear Greenwood’s after-dinner stories