Johnson heads for 80-seat majority as Remain targets fall by third

THE number of seats in which tactical voting could produce a win for Remainers has fallen by nearly a third in a month, as a poll of polls gives the Tories their biggest lead since 2017.

The analysis shows that since Nov 10, the number of marginal seats where tactical voting could be decisive in defeating the Conservative candidate has fallen from 68 to 49.

This is where Labour, Lib Dem or Green Party voters switch allegiance to back whichever Remain candidate is most likely to defeat a Conservative Brexit-backing candidate.

The decline in target tactical voting seats, revealed by the Remain United website, follows the Brexit Party’s withdrawal from Conservative constituencies which has seen their votes switch virtually en masse to the Tories.

It comes as the monthly November poll of polls by Electoral Calculus shows Tories with the same 13 per cent lead over Labour as Theresa May had at the same point in the 2017 campaign with two and a half weeks to go until election day. Her bungled manifesto launch at the same point, however, saw her support collapse to just two per cent on the eve of polling day, costing her the majority she had inherited from David Cameron.

November is the best month the Tories have had in the poll of polls since June 2017, with the Tories on 43 per cent, Labour on 29.9 per cent, Lib Dems on 15.1 per cent and the Brexit Party on 3.4 per cent.

This would give the Conservatives 365 seats, Labour 202, the Lib Dems 20 and the Brexit Party none. It would mean a majority of 80 for Mr Johnson.

Martin Baxter, the Electoral Calculus founder, said current volatility was within the “tribes” with Leavers switching from the Brexit Party to Tories, and Remainers coalescing to Labour, squeezing the Lib Dems.

However, Gina Miller, the businesswoman who founded Remain United and led two successful legal challenges against the Government on Brexit, said talk of a big majority for Mr Johnson was premature.

Her tactical voting website urged supporters to “intensify activity” in the remaining 49 marginal seats.