In Scotland, Boris is doing the impossible

Disaster was predicted when he took office, but a pro-union message is winning the PM new fans

Putting Boris Johnson into 10 Downing Street was bound to pose a major challenge to the preservation of the United Kingdom. Scots would never take to a brash Etonian and his accession would usher in the demise of the Conservative Party north of the border, gifting the Tories’ 13 Scottish seats to the SNP and building unstoppable momentum towards another independence referendum. That, at least, was the accepted wisdom when Mr Johnson became Prime Minister in July.

Now, however, as the Prime Minister launches his party’s Scottish manifesto today, there may well be something extraordinary rustling in the heather. One recent poll suggested that the Scottish Tories could even hang on to all of their MPS, raising the remarkable question of whether the Scots have at last accepted Mr Johnson.

It would be an astonishing turnaround if they have. One of his first acts was to sack David Mundell as Scottish secretary. For decades, including 12 years as the party’s sole MP in Scotland, Mr Mundell had been the Tories’ point man north of the border. Perhaps more significantly, Mr Johnson also earned an enormous amount of scorn from the then leader of the Scottish Tories, Ruth Davidson.

Few onlookers wholeheartedly accepted her protestations that her resignation as party leader was entirely unconnected with her views on the PM. Indeed, a number of her would-be successors wasted little time in suggesting that the best thing for the Scottish Tories in the age of Boris Johnson would be to stage a breakaway from the UK party.

Such mutterings have since been stilled, and, while it would be foolish to read too much into one opinion poll, the nation’s top political number cruncher, Sir John Curtice, has said that the lead in public opinion built up by Mr Johnson in England is undoubtedly crossing the border.

What’s happening? Both Mr Mundell and Ms Davidson, while not yet fully paid-up members of the Boris fan club, have at least taken to heart the message of Rab Butler’s wicked put-down of Anthony Eden and decided that Mr Johnson “is the best Prime Minister we have”.

Beyond the personalities, Mr Johnson’s most significant achievement is that he appears to have proved conclusively to Scottish voters that he is a fervent supporter of the Union.

He has frequently and forcefully rejected Nicola Sturgeon’s claims that if her party gains the most seats on December 12 she will have a mandate for another referendum on breaking up Britain. She needs Westminster to cede her the necessary legal authority for such a vote, and Mr Johnson has made clear that this is something to which he will never agree.

Thus, unlike in England, the election beyond the Cheviots is not about “getting Brexit done” but about “stopping Sturgeon”. Accepting this, and working hard to prove that he is not all about Brexit, seem to be paying off for Mr Johnson. According to Alister Jack, the new Scottish Secretary and a Brexiteer: “Opposition to another independence referendum is the number one issue on the doorsteps and even blue-collar Labour voters are trusting Boris and saying they’ll lend us their votes to beat the nationalists.”

This is a view shared in the nextdoor constituency, held currently by the man who was sacked to make way for Mr Jack. David Mundell, an unashamed Remainer, who did not support Mr Johnson for leader, says: “There is a realisation that only the Conservatives can stop Nicola Sturgeon. She is a very polarising figure. But she made this election about independence and we are responding to that.”

By going along with the Scottish Tories’ determination to fight a significantly different campaign, focused on the SNP leader, and by convincing voters that he can deliver on Brexit, Mr Johnson has thus far at any rate succeeded in uniting different strands in his often warring party.

But there’s no doubt he’s being assisted in this by Nicola Sturgeon’s obsession with independence and helping to create prime minister Jeremy Corbyn. She’s become the main unifying force in this Scottish election, albeit in a direction she might well not wish.