Tories to win biggest majority since Thatcher, poll forecasts

THE Conservatives are on course for their best general election result since 1987 by winning a 68-seat majority, a major poll forecast last night.

Yougov predicted that a swathe of Labour seats in the “red wall” of the North and Midlands would fall to the Tories, giving Boris Johnson 359 seats, 42 more than in 2017, with Jeremy Corbyn on 211, down 51 on the last election.

The Tories would win 43 per cent of the vote, 11 points ahead of Labour.

The Liberal Democrats would lose MPS, according to the survey, with the Brexit Party failing to pick up any seats.

The Yougov poll of 100,000 people predicted the results in individual seats using a method that correctly forecast the 2017 hung parliament, making it the most significant poll of the general election campaign so far.

A 68-seat majority would be the biggest for the Conservatives since Margaret Thatcher won a majority of 102 in 1987, and Labour’s worst showing since 1983, when Michael Foot was leader.

Yougov predicted that 44 Labour seats would fall to the Tories, including

Bolsover, held by Dennis Skinner since 1970, and the West Bromwich East seat vacated by Tom Watson, the departing Labour deputy leader.

The Tories would also pick up such seats as Barrow and Furness, Wakefield, Ashfield, Bishop Auckland, Dudley North, Derby North, Bassetlaw, Great Grimsby, Stoke-on-trent North, Stoke-on-trent Central, Crewe and Nantwich, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Workington, Ipswich and Leigh.

Labour would not gain a single seat from any other party, according to the poll. Of the 76 Labour-held seats with a majority of fewer than 8,000, Mr Corbyn’s party was behind in 43.

The largest predicted swings were in pro-leave constituencies, with a 9 per cent swing in West Bromwich East and a similar forecast for Caroline Flint’s Don Valley constituency.

While the Lib Dems would gain one more seat than in 2017, giving them 13 MPS, they would lose all of the MPS who defected to the party during the course of the last parliament, who have increased their numbers to 20. The SNP was predicted to take 43 seats, an increase of eight.

Mr Johnson’s predicted vote share of 43 per cent would be similar to that achieved by Theresa May in 2017, but Labour would lose sufficient votes to other parties to hand him a healthy majority, according to the forecast.

Another poll, using the same technique, carried out for the pro-remain group Best for Britain, predicted a Tory majority of 82.

Separately, a Savanta Comres survey for The Daily Telegraph found almost a third of Labour voters admitted they did not like Mr Corbyn, while one in five did not know whether the party would leave the UK in a better state after five years in government.

More than a third (36 per cent) of people who voted Labour in 2017 and 29 per cent of current Labour voters said they liked the party but not the leader, while two in five (42 per cent) Lib Dem voters liked Labour but not Mr Corbyn. However, Mr Johnson is adding value to the Tories. One in 10 (11 per cent) of those intending to vote Conservative said they liked him, but not his party.

Among 2016 Leave voters, 65 per cent intended to vote for the Conservatives, and 11 per cent for the Brexit Party. Among Remainers, nearly half (49 per cent) intended to vote Labour, and 23 per cent for the Lib Dems.