Troubling trade wars

International trade is in a terrible mess, with the evidence mounting that the current outbreak of tariff wars is having a seriously negative effect on the global economy. US trade policy has rarely if ever been more temperamental. One day Donald Trump is about to reach a rapprochement with the Chinese, the next a deal has been put off to the other side of the presidential election next year. But wait, with the stock market crashing the deal is on again and we can expect it imminently.

Meanwhile, Mr Trump has opened up a number of new fronts in his war on global trade. Argentina and Brazil face higher tariffs on steel and aluminium, while French champagne and luxury goods are to be hit as punishment for the imposition in France of a digital sales tax, a less than convincing explanation, given that the tax seemed previously to have been accepted by the US. Even Mr Trump’s own trade officials do not know if they are coming or going.

Trade policy increasingly seems to be conducted on the basis of whim and point scoring. Previously accepted norms and conventions, overseen by the World Trade Organisation, have come to mean virtually nothing. Many of Mr Trump’s complaints, particularly with regard to China, are legitimate. China has played fast and loose with rules that were never designed for an aggressively managed command-and-control economy such as its own. This was bound to provoke a reaction.

But if the system is to survive at all, it is essential that predictability and order is restored. In the process, there must be internationally agreed action to bring China to heel. That means the US finding common purpose with its allies in Europe, not similarly attacking them.