Epidemic doubles in size every six days with 75,000 ill in Wuhan alone

MORE than 75,000 people are infected with coronavirus in Wuhan alone, academics have calculated, with the epidemic doubling in size every six days.

Experts at the University of Hong Kong, have modelled the spread of the virus and believe that each patient has infected between two and three people and the full scale of the epidemic has been “undercounted”.

They also warn that epidemics will soon emerge in other Chinese cities, which are seeing a time-lag behind Wuhan of between one and two weeks.

Prof Gabriel Leung from the University of Hong Kong said: “Not everyone who is infected with 2019-ncov would require to seek medical attention.

“During the urgent demands of a rapidly expanding epidemic of a completely new virus, especially when system capacity is getting overwhelmed, some of those infected may be undercounted in the official register.”

The new estimates suggest that several major Chinese cities might have already imported dozens of cases of the coronavirus from Wuhan, in enough numbers to start local epidemics.

Dr Kathy Leung from the University of Hong Kong, said: “Strategies to drastically reduce within-population contact by cancelling mass gatherings, school closures, and introducing workfrom-home arrangements could contain the spread of infection so that the first imported cases, or even early local transmission, does not result in large epidemics outside Wuhan.”

Prof Leung added: “We strongly urge authorities worldwide that preparedness plans and mitigation interventions should be readied for quick deployment, including securing supplies of test reagents, drugs, personal protective equipment, hospital supplies and, above all, human resources, especially in cities with close ties to Wuhan and other major Chinese cities.”

The research appeared in The Lancet.