A divided squad, fans in revolt: Why Townsend’s tenure hangs by a thread
A dismal World Cup campaign and Finn Russell’s mutiny have piled pressure on Scotland’s head coach, says Richard Bath
There are normal ‘shoogly pegs’ and then there are the shards that support Gregor Townsend’s Scotland head coach jacket, a gravity-defying garment which hangs by the slenderest of threads going into this Six Nations.
Before Japan last autumn, only one other national coach had failed to take Scotland through into the knockout stages of a World Cup, and he paid with his job. When Andy Robinson’s side were dispatched home after the pool stages in New Zealand in 2011, the writing was on the wall, even if he hung on until the following November when a humiliating defeat in Aberdeen by Tonga put him out of his misery.
Whether Townsend follows Robinson out of Murrayfield’s revolving door depends upon what happens between today, when they face the Ireland side which destroyed them in Japan at a ground where Scotland have not won since 1998, and midway through March, when Scotland conclude their Six Nations campaign in Cardiff, where they have not won since 2002. Nor is the rest of the year a cakewalk: they play two summer Tests in South Africa before heading home via New Zealand, followed by autumn Tests against Argentina, Japan and the All Blacks.
At the beginning of what could be a make or break year for Townsend, the portents do not look good, and not just because Scotland lost arguably their only indispensable player when Finn Russell walked out last week. Losing such a quality playmaker is a disaster, not least because it appears to have opened a rift in the squad: some players are quietly supportive of Russell while others have been adding #noonebiggerthantheteam hashtags to their texts. But the real significance of Russell’s departure is that it has raised uncomfortable question marks about Townsend’s competence as a coach.
Russell’s misgivings about Townsend first surfaced after Scotland’s 38-38 draw at Twickenham last season, when Scotland found themselves 31-7 down after kicking too much and too loosely. If Russell is to be believed – and the evidence seems overwhelming – he overrode Townsend’s half-time instructions and instead imposed his own game plan to devastating effect.
Those doubts about the direction of travel under Townsend resurfaced with a vengeance at the World Cup, particularly during the Ireland game when Scotland stubbornly tried to go wide without ever having the forward platform to do so. With Scotland ruinously predictable, Ireland’s back row hammered Russell and Scotland’s main strike runner, Stuart Hogg, reducing the Scots to a shambles. The fly-half ’s dissent has become so voluble that after his departure a Scotland team-mate said: “Was I shocked when I heard the news the other day? Really, really disappointed, but not shocked, no.”
This is not the first time Townsend’s tactics have been disparaged. Eddie Jones mocked Townsend’s expansive approach: “Scotland, they’re big darlings aren’t they,” he said, “how excited do people get when the ball goes from side to side with Scotland.” Warren Gatland was even more dismissive after his tactical masterclass saw Wales dismantle Scotland on their last visit to Cardiff in 2018 after Townsend’s men arrived as favourites, the Wales coach crowing: “It was an afternoon I was expecting …
I knew we’d win by 20.”
Gatland’s hubris may be objectionable, but he had a point. Scotland were naively, horribly predictable, their determination to go wide at all costs, even off slow ruck ball, leading to Gareth Davies’s interception try which kick-started Scotland’s disintegration. It was an ashenfaced Townsend’s first Six Nations game as Scotland coach and it seemed to come as a complete surprise that Plan A was not enough at this level. But there is a streak of cussedness to Townsend which has manifested itself in, for example, his clear reticence to remove his defence coach despite Scotland continually conceding early tries.
But then, as his mentor Sir Ian Mcgeechan conceded, Townsend does not appear to have surrounded himself with strong, experienced coaches willing to speak truth to power. A dominant head coach who is in no doubt that he is the cleverest man in the room needs a John Mitchell, Shaun Edwards or Andy Farrell on staff to change the dynamic.
Yet the introspection prompted by Scotland’s failure at the World Cup and Russell’s rancorous exit is hardly the whole story for a coach whose record should speak for itself. When Townsend was controversially brought in as Glasgow coach by Scottish Rugby Union chief executive Mark Dodson – who has consistently championed him and will be loath to see him fail – he revolutionised the club and energised a group of talented young players, taking an underfunded bunch of perennial also-rans to the Pro12 title.
Viewed simply through the prism of the stats, his tenure with Scotland has also been a huge success, with only Mcgeechan in his first stint securing a better win/ loss ratio than Townsend’s 55 per cent. Under his stewardship Scotland have pulled off some notable victories, beating Australia home and away, while their Calcutta Cup win at Murrayfield, followed by last season’s draw at Twickenham, was their first victory over England for 10 years.
Yet Scotland’s lack of consistency is deeply frustrating. They are either irresistible, or they are capitulating in Cardiff, Nice and Yokohama. In that regard, Townsend’s coaching career mirrors his playing career, throughout which a vociferous minority of Scotland fans seemed determined to overlook his many talents.
These people would have preferred the roundhead Craig Chalmers to the cavalier risk-taker Townsend, and would have lauded Rob Andrew and Ollie Campbell over Stuart Barnes and Tony Ward. They still pine on social media for the sainted Vern Cotter to return, and spurn the affectionate nickname of Toonie, instead preferring the disrespectful Clownsend.
By and large Scotland rugby fans are a reasonable audience who will accept defeat as long as the team have played to their potential. Whether Townsend is able to achieve that in 2020 will determine whether he is still Scotland coach next January.