Contingency plans in case of a pandemic

The isolation of a dozen towns in northern Italy affected by an outbreak of coronavirus is a harbinger of what might happen here in the UK. The World Health Organisation (WHO) has so far held off declaring a pandemic but this seems to be just a matter of time and of definition. Now that the virus has spread well beyond China and is infecting people with no obvious connection to the source outbreak, stopping a global contagion looks a forlorn hope.

With more than 200 confirmed cases, Italy has the largest number in Europe and the authorities reported further fatalities yesterday. Elsewhere, hotspots have occurred in Iran, Iraq and South Korea; and the more we find out about where the virus has taken root, the greater our ignorance about how it functions is exposed.

The WHO currently refers to the virus as a public health emergency. To declare a pandemic would give it added authority to request national governments to bring about the “full mobilisation of health systems, facilities and workers at national and sub-national levels”, to “distribute personal protective equipment” and to “distribute antivirals and other medical supplies in accordance with national plans”.

In reality this is already happening in many countries. Not declaring a pandemic does not mean it isn’t one, and many governments are taking no chances. The big question is whether they are overreacting. In Italy, schools are closed, public transport has shut down, restaurants and shops are locked up and the Venice carnival has been curtailed. The government has said people should not be alarmed yet it is hard not to be when such measures are put in place.

The reaction on the world markets yesterday indicates concerns that the responses of governments will plunge the global economy into recession. While seeking to contain the spread is important, given the mortality rate, the measures required to do so risk paralysing normal activity.

So far, the UK has been clear of infections from unknown sources but there is little information about what contingency plans have been drawn up should that state of affairs no longer apply. Will schools be closed if a pupil tests positive for the virus; or public transport shut down if it spreads into the wider population? Ministers do not want to scare people but they should consider keeping the public more up to speed with what is going on.