A welcome review of military capabilities
The Government’s defence and security review has been formally launched after weeks of speculation about its terms of reference and wrangling over its membership. Boris Johnson has called it the most far-reaching rethink since the end of the Cold War, combining military spending requirements, foreign policy priorities and capability structures.
This integrated approach is welcome. In the past, these reviews have been too narrowly focused. Invariably, they are hijacked by the Treasury and become an exercise in cost-cutting, with little strategic overview. This time we are promised a process covering everything from the role of the diplomatic service to the capabilities of our Armed Forces and security agencies.
Arguably, one of the key decisions in this context has already been taken – the green light for Huawei to participate in the UK’S 5G networks, something the Americans and many Tory MPS are still anxious to reverse. But the broad parameters are sensible, even if the decisions to be made within them will be hugely controversial.
Should the Army be cut further and more money ploughed into robotic weaponry and cyber-warfare? What role is to be played by the Royal Navy’s two new aircraft carriers, which are yet to be deployed? Do we invest in new fighters or pilotless planes? Guessing our defence needs in 30 years’ time has often proved to be a mug’s game.
While this must not be a cuts-led review, pressures on spending are inevitable. Sajid Javid used his resignation speech in the Commons yesterday to warn against abandoning the disciplines he apparently intended to follow before quitting as Chancellor. While this was hardly a Geoffrey Howe moment, it none the less contained the seeds of a schism that can only deepen over time, between low taxers and big spenders.
Mr Javid made it clear that he thought No 10’s determination to rein in the Treasury signalled that the fiscal restraint promised in the election manifesto no longer applied. There are, indeed, a lot of spending promises piling up which will need to be paid for.
If the strategic review can get a grip on defence procurement costs, something that has eluded all previous administrations, and redirect the bloated foreign aid budget into areas where the country wants to see higher domestic spending – such as on flood defences – that will be a start.