‘Expect 20pc of all workers to be off sick’
Government warns coronavirus may mean one employee in five absent at same time, as it puts country on emergency footing
ONE in five British workers could be off work sick at the same time in the event of a major coronavirus outbreak, the Government’s official “action plan” predicted yesterday.
Faced with staff shortages, the police may be instructed to investigate only the most serious crimes, and the NHS would treat only the sickest patients, the document says.
The Government’s contingency plans, unveiled by Boris Johnson, spell out the measures Britain could be forced to take. The Prime Minister described the virus as “a national challenge … something that our country has to get through”.
The document also details plans to help businesses threatened by the growing crisis and says that the Army is on standby to become involved.
The plan drew comparisons between coronavirus and the 1918 Spanish flu, and revealed that the Government is working on a worstcase scenario of 500,000 deaths, with up to 80 per cent of the country infected. The number of cases in the UK has risen from 39 to 51.
It came as the Bank of England was under pressure to cut interest rates after its US counterpart, the Federal Reserve, did so amid fears that the health crisis could spark an unprecedented global recession. But the Dow Jones slumped by another 3 per cent as traders were spooked by the emergency reduction.
Last night it emerged that a worker at Deloitte, a financial firm in London, tested positive for the virus.
The NHS has declared the highest state of emergency, with hospitals told to “postpone anything postponable” if services face a major surge in demand.
Government sources suggested it could mean more than 50,000 operations being put on hold across the UK, if pressures mount.
Last night, World Health Organisation chiefs warned that across the world, mortality rates are 3.4 per cent, far higher than seasonal flu.
The Queen wore gloves while giving out investitures yesterday amid warnings about handshaking.
Donald Trump, the US president, last night said he was considering banning US citizens from travelling from the country to virus hotspots.
Mako Vunipola, the England rugby player, said he was in self-isolation after travelling through Hong Kong, and is unavailable for the Six Nations match against Wales this weekend.
The 28-page plan warns that any major outbreak could be just the first of “multiple waves” to hit the UK. The Prime Minister said that the Government was committed to “doing everything possible” in order to limit the damage the virus could wreak on Britain, warning that it was now “highly likely” that infection would continue to spread.
Government advisers said that if the outbreak became impossible to contain, they expect it to take six to eight weeks to reach its peak, with the worst pressures likely to be seen in April or May.
They also forecast that the fallout from an outbreak or pandemic could continue until August.
Officials said that they anticipate overall death rates of around 1 per cent, which compares with death rates of around 0.025 per cent during the 2009 swine flu pandemic. But they are fearful of far higher death rates among the elderly, with research showing coronavirus has mortality rates of almost 15 per cent among those over the age of 80.
The action plan sets out a raft of sweeping measures.
These include the use of police to maintain public order, and only fulfilling “critical functions” – which may be taken if a major outbreak or pandemic takes hold.
“With a significant loss of officers and staff, the police would concentrate on responding to serious crimes and maintaining public order,” warns the document.
And it says that the Army could be used to take over police duties at protected locations such as nuclear sites, Parliament and Downing Street, to free up officers who normally patrol them.
The Armed Forces are on standby to help fill gaps in vital public services as the pressures on them become “significant and clearly noticeable”.
Meanwhile, Border Force officers will be given police-style powers to detain people at borders if they are showing symptoms of the virus and they refuse to be tested. The Coronavirus Action Plan also makes a commitment to “ensure dignified treatment of all affected, including those who die”.
Government advisers have said that the profile of coronavirus is very different, as it is far less severe for children and young people, but most deadly in the elderly.
Care homes have been advised to go into lockdown in the event of a major coronavirus outbreak, with visitors banned, and sick patients confined to their bedrooms.
The guidance seen by this newspaper, comes as health chiefs urged relatives of care home residents not to “go and visit your auntie in a care home” if suffering from a cold or flulike symptoms.
The plan spells out the four phases – contain, delay, research and mitigate – behind the Government’s strategy.
During the delay phase, which would be triggered when it became clear that it was no longer possible to contain the spread of the virus, actions could include school closures, encouraging greater home working, and reducing the number of large-scale gatherings.
Yesterday, ministers repeatedly insisted that this stage has not yet been reached.
Advisers warned that taking such measures at the wrong time would run the risk of creating “an awful lot of disruption” and mean that people would be unlikely to take such advice when such moves were critical.
Yesterday, the Health Secretary said that sick leave rules could be changed to allow people to sign themselves off work for two weeks in order to “selfisolate”.
Matt Hancock told MPS the issue was “under review” given the current situation means a person must give their employer a doctor’s note if they have been ill for more than seven days.
It came as health chiefs in the Canary Islands confirmed the sixth person to test positive at the Tenerife hotel hit by coronavirus is a British woman who was mixing with other guests for more than a week.
A spokesman for the regional health authority admitted that the unnamed Briton had not been confined to her room for most of her week-long stay at the four-star H10 Costa Adeje Palace.
‘With a significant loss of officers and staff, the police would concentrate on serious crimes’