A reassuring action plan for global crisis

The sober-suited trio leading the response to the coronavirus crisis formed a reassuring presence at Downing Street yesterday as the Government published its action plan for dealing with the virus. Boris Johnson, Professor Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, and Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific officer, struck the right notes of proportionality, transparency and competence.

The plan agreed among all parties in the four corners of the UK is a practical guide to what we know so far, what is happening at the moment and what might need to happen in future. If the worst comes to the worst and a pandemic grips the world similar to the Spanish flu of 1918, emergency measures will be needed to keep the country going.

The difficulty this Government and all others face is the unknown nature of the virus, its capacity to spread and the morbidity attached to it. The Department of Health announced the number of confirmed cases has reached 51, which is not much but the rate of increase is accelerating.

Not only will lives be disrupted if schools and offices have to shut and large numbers of people are required to stay at home, but the economy will be hard hit, at least temporarily. This must have implications for the Budget next week and it makes sense for Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, to prepare an interim package of measures until the full ramifications are clear.

Markets have steadied after last week’s steep falls, but another shock cannot be ruled out, with the OECD suggesting that global growth this year will be halved by a slowdown if the virus spreads. The US Federal Reserve reacted yesterday with a cut in interest rates that rallied the markets.

This is a global crisis and every country needs to work together to defeat it and find a vaccine as quickly as possible. The coincidence of the UK-EU trade talks getting under way need not frustrate this co-operation and nor should it be allowed to, either by London or Brussels.

The Prime Minister said the country was ready and resilient but among the many unknowns is whether the NHS can cope with a major outbreak. In some ways it is well equipped to deal with the early stages of a pandemic because of its centralised nature. But if the outbreak becomes severe, it is hard to see a system that is under pressure in the most benign of circumstances managing, especially if health-care workers fall ill and have to stop work.

Then again, this needs to be kept in proportion. Even if the number of people hospitalised with coronavirus were double that of swine flu 10 years ago, that still represents less than a 1 per cent increase in NHS activity.

The suggestion that retired nurses and doctors will be asked to fill the breach is a good one. But we all have our own parts to play. In a world where people demand instant treatment or turn up at their GP surgery or A&E with the mildest of ailments, greater forbearance will be needed.

Young people with nothing worse than a cold or even with flu-like symptoms should stay at home until they recover. Non-urgent operations may have to be postponed and additional beds provided in pop-up hospitals.

All of these are for the future if the containment and delay stages of the strategy fail. For the moment, however, the Government is doing all that could be expected of it.