Government has to impose stricter measures to stem tide, say experts

Scientists express surprise that Britain is delaying controls brought in by France, Ireland and Italy

Sarah Knapton

Gordon Rayner

THE Government’s strategy to wait until coronavirus is peaking before closing schools and asking vulnerable people to stay at home has been criticised by experts who warned further measures were needed to stop the epidemic spiralling out of control.

Many scientists said they were surprised that Britain had not imposed similar restrictions to those brought in by countries like Italy, France, Ireland and China, including travel restrictions, keeping people apart in restaurants, shutting museums and asking people to avoid crowds.

The World Health Organisation also appeared to criticise the UK’S approach, saying that countries should take a comprehensive approach to testing, quarantine, social distancing and contact tracing.

Modelling by the University of Sussex, seen exclusively by The Daily Telegraph, shows that imposing lockdown measures early during an outbreak will split the epidemic into two lower peaks, taking pressure off the health service.

The Government says it is delaying asking people to stay at home for as long as possible in case they become “fatigued” with the process, and break out of isolation just as the virus is peaking.

But authorities said it was a risky strategy, and also criticised the Government for stopping testing and contact tracing in the community, claiming public health officials will not be able to predict the peak if they do not know the numbers.

Dr Bharat Pankhankia, a senior clinical lecturer at the University of Exeter, said: “They won’t know if there is a surge in the community and not releasing numbers can give the false perception that we don’t have infection, causing people to lower their guard.

“I would have brought in more rigid controls. If you’ve got a smouldering fire with the potential for an inferno, you start dampening it down early – you don’t wait until the inferno has started. We need to go hard and fast.”

Yesterday, France became the latest country to close all schools, universities and nurseries. Ireland announced the closure of all schools and childcare facilities and other public spaces such as museums this week, while Scotland banned gatherings of more than 500 people.

Prof Jimmy Whitworth, of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said: “I am surprised that stronger measures haven’t been introduced at this stage, but I anticipate they will come in the next week or two.

“The longer we delay in introducing social distancing measures, the harder it is for these to be effective at delaying the outbreak.”

Sir Patrick Vallance, the Government’s chief scientific adviser, appeared to admit that the UK strategy is to allow millions of people to become infected so that a “herd immunity” can be built up, which will protect more vulnerable people.

Sir Patrick said that at least 60 per cent of the population – around 39million people – would need to catch the disease before sufficient numbers were immune and the virus could no longer transmit in the community.

“Our aim is to try to reduce the peak, broaden the peak, not suppress it completely,” he said.

“The vast majority of people get a mild illness, to build up some kind of herd immunity so more people are immune to this disease and we reduce the transmission – at the same time we protect those who are most vulnerable to it. Those are the key things we need to do.” But experts warned that was a dangerous strategy, given that it was still unclear how the virus affected people and what the long term implications were.

Jeremy Hunt, the former health secretary and now chairman of the Health Select Committee, said the UK was now in a “national emergency” and that many people “will be surprised and concerned” that more was not being done to stop the spread.

“You would have thought that every single thing we do in that four weeks would be designed to slow the spread of people catching the virus,” he told the BBC.

Mathematicians at Sussex university said the Government would only get one shot at bringing in a major intervention, so it had to be timed correctly for the biggest impact.

Using modelling, they calculated that intervening early would break one large peak into two smaller, more manageable peaks.

The analysis came as a study showed that if nothing was done, the NHS would be short of 20,000 intensive care beds at the worst point of the crisis.

Prof Istvan Kiss, of Sussex university, said: “We were thinking of a major intervention, so probably something like most people working from home, closing all the schools, social distancing that’s quite substantial.

“First of all you don’t know when the peak is. You can’t wait forever. And then you have to think about the capacity of the NHS and the hospitals.

“So if you are looking to diffuse the peak of the epidemic, it is better to intervene early. If you go early you know what to expect and end up with two lower peaks, which are a little more easy to control.”

A petition on the Government’s website calling for a lockdown had reached nearly 40,000 signatures by last night. Dr Tony Rao, an NHS consultant and old-age psychiatrist, called on the Government to close schools in order to protect the elderly.

“Surely the risk of spread from children to their own family is outweighed by the risk of multiple children being infected and spreading it to multiple families, including grandparents?

“Surely it’s time to close schools? The delay phase clearly isn’t working.”

Prof Jonathan Ball, a virologist from the University of Nottingham, also warned that plans to keep people with coughs and fevers indoors for seven days did not go far enough.

“I am concerned that the Government’s advice on self isolation does not go far enough,” he said. “There is emerging evidence that suggests that in as many as 70 per cent of cases the infection will present with symptoms similar to a common cold.”

“This is serious, as it means that based on government advice – which specifies persistent cough and raised temperature – most people who can potentially transmit will not be aware of the risk they pose to others and will not self isolate.”

Yesterday, the cross-party truce over coronavirus broke down, with Opposition leaders openly criticising Boris Johnson and calling on him to explain why Britain’s response was so low-key when compared with other countries.

Plaid Cymru said in a statement: “You can see growing public concern and the Government needs to be clear on the reasons it is taking less action than other countries.”

However, other scientists said that the social impact of social distancing and isolation could be severe, leading to loneliness for vulnerable groups.

20,000

Shortfall in the number of NHS intensive care beds that will be required at the peak of the crisis, according to researchers