Britain on steeper trajectory than Italy
THE number of people who have died in Britain is rising faster than Italy, figures show.
While Italy recorded the highest death toll in a single day since the outbreak began on Friday March 13, with 627 deaths, the rate of increase has been slowing.
Since the country began seeing coronavirus deaths in double figures, it has continued to rise by a daily average of 35 per cent. Over the last week, that has fallen to less than 20 per cent, with the jump to 4,032 on Friday an 18 per cent daily increase.
In contrast, the UK until yesterday had seen an average daily rise of 45 per cent in the number of deaths, setting its trajectory closer to that of Spain’s average daily rise of 50 per cent, Telegraph analysis shows, although it fell 22 per cent yesterday.
But there are fears Britain is now on a steeper trajectory than Italy. At the same point in the outbreak Italy had 107 deaths. The UK has now confirmed 177 deaths. The death rates in each country are starkly different. Currently 8.3 per cent of those confirmed as infected with Covid-19 have died in Italy, compared to 4 per cent in China; in the UK it is around 4.4 per cent.
The Department of Health is convinced the death rate is far lower and is keen to roll out antibody tests to see how many people have recovered from the disease without realising they had it. Figures suggest that the actual death rate in China when factoring in mild cases is closer to 1.4 per cent.
On Wednesday, China did not record any new cases for the first time since the disease was identified.
Active cases in South Korea peaked around a week ago at almost 7,500 amid an intense testing regime, and in the last seven days the number of active cases has fallen by 8 per cent.
Milan scientists say countries can expect exponential growth for 18 days before there is a levelling off and warned Britain faces a “tsunami” of infections.