Lack of testing means we have lost track of virus, warns Hunt
Staff could get back to work at stretched health service if UK ramps up number of checks for infection as it emerges that testing has never once hit the initial 10,000-a-day target
ONE million people are likely to be infected with coronavirus by next week, yet the Government will have no idea who they are because it stopped testing in the community, Jeremy Hunt has warned.
In an attack on the Government’s strategy during a debate on emergency legislation in the Commons, the former health secretary said Britain was wrongly focusing on social distancing rather than tracking those who were infected. Countries which have aggressively tested and isolated people, such as South Korea, are now seeing a fall in cases, yet Britain has not tested any suspected infections outside hospitals since March 13.
Figures show that the UK has fallen way behind other countries for testing, and it has so far failed to meet its daily target of 10,000.
Mr Hunt told MPS: “It may be too late to avoid Italy. All our public focus has been on social distancing … but testing and contact-tracing to break the chain of transmission is every bit as important, if not more important. South Korea
avoided national lockdown despite having a worse outbreak initially than us. Taiwan introduced temperature scanning in malls and office buildings but kept shops and restaurants open; it has had just two deaths.
“In Singapore restaurants remain open and schools reopening.
“But 10 days ago in this country we went in the opposite direction and stopped testing in the community. How can we possibly suppress the virus if we don’t know where it is?”
Mr Hunt said that Britain currently had 300,000 cases and warned that the number of people with the virus was likely to be doubling every five days, which meant that by the end of next week, more than one million people would be infected.
Last week the Prime Minister promised that the NHS would increase testing to 25,000 a day, yet last Friday just 2,355 tests were carried out.
Matt Hanock, the Health Secretary, yesterday promised that the Government was seeking to carry out more testing, particularly of NHS staff.
By Sarah Knapton SCIENCE EDITOR
and Laura Donnelly HEALTH EDITOR
BRITAIN is under pressure to increase the number of coronavirus tests it carries out, as it emerged that public health chiefs have never once hit their initial 10,000-a-day target.
The UK is now seriously lagging behind other nations in monitoring the spread of the virus, and testing NHS workers to see if they are infected.
Experts have warned that in some wards, up to one third of medics are now self-isolating at home, often because family or housemates have shown signs of the virus.
If they could be tested, they could get back to work, say health analysts.
On March 11, NHS England said it would be ramping up testing to 10,000 a day, and called on local hospital labs to help with the effort. A week later, Boris Johnson, vowed that would rise to 25,000 a day.
Yet despite the promises, the maximum achieved so far has been 8,400 tests, which took place last Thursday.
Since then, the average daily testing number has been 4,573.
Lord Crisp, NHS chief executive and Department of Health permanent secretary from 2000 to 2006, told The Daily Telegraph that the lack of testing of staff was an “obvious bottleneck” that the Government needed to address.
“We are seeing these situations where you have three junior doctors living as flatmates – one has a cough and three of them are off work for two weeks,” he said. “That is ridiculous.”
As of Sunday, Britain had carried out a total of 78,340, around 1,164 per one million people, far behind many other countries.
In Europe’s worst-hit country – Italy – health teams have tested more than 3,499 tests per one million citizens (206,886 tests).
Most recent figures show that more than a week ago, Germany had already carried out 167,009, the equivalent of 2,023 tests per one million people while Norway has tested 6,000 per
million (34,583 tests). Meanwhile South Korea has tested 316,664 people – equivalent to 6,148 tests per one million population, and Singapore recorded 6,507 tests per one million people.
Prof Rosalind Smyth, director and professor of child health, UCL Great Ormond St Institute of Child Health, who is currently self-isolating with suspected coronavirus, warned that Britain simply had no idea how many cases it had because of a lack of testing.
“We have really very little idea of the number of cases, and I am concerned that this figure is so misleading that it should not be used.
“On conservative estimates, the true figure is likely to be five to 10 times higher.
“It may heighten concern, as people think the case fatality rate is much higher than it is, or provide false reassurance that the number of cases in a given area is much lower than it is.”
On March 12, Britain said it would no longer be testing in the community and instead only checking people admitted to hospital for the virus, leading to widespread criticism from UK scientists. Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the World Health Organisation director general, criticised countries that are not testing sufficiently, warning them: “You cannot fight a fire blindfolded... test, test, test.”
Yesterday, he said: “To win, we need to attack the coronavirus with aggressive and targeted tactics – testing every suspected Covid-19 case, isolating and caring for every confirmed case, and tracing and quarantining every close contact.”
The Royal College of Nursing (RCN) also wrote to the Prime Minister saying it was crucial to test NHS workers.
In the letter, Dame Donna Kinnair, chief executive of the RCN, said: “Our members have been unstinting in their dedication and professionalism to protecting the health and wellbeing of the UK – they must be supported by the Government and health sector in return.
“Our members are coming out of retirement, students are interrupting their studies, and nursing staff are deploying from non-clinical settings, all to support the front line in the battle against Covid-19. We ask you to personally intervene and act to ensure enough supply of PPE [personal protective equipment] and testing for Covid-19 is available for all nursing staff and our colleagues across the health and care system.”
Yesterday, Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, said he hoped that the testing of medical staff would take place “as soon as possible” so that doctors, nurses and other NHS workers who may not have the virus but are self-isolating can get back to work.
He told BBC Breakfast: “We are rapidly expanding testing. We have been buying testing kits over this weekend and all of last week to make sure we have as much as possible.”
He said he hoped to say more about the expansion of tests in the next few days.
Experts are also hopeful that a new antibody test, which can tell if people have been infected in the past, will be available soon to find out who is now immune.
Prof Martin Hibberd, professor of emerging infectious disease, London
School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said: “When this diagnostic does become available, I think it will become a big help in tackling the disease.
“Most likely this will be reserved for front-line healthcare workers and other key workers first and perhaps vulnerable groups later, before becoming more widely available.”
At the weekend, Dr Martin Marshall, of the Royal College of GPS, warned there were not enough testing kits to go around the country and officials have refused to reveal how many tests there are available to the NHS.
Experts said they believed the lack of testing was less to do with unwillingness and more likely to be a lack of kits available and enough people to process the results.
Dr Bharat Pankhania, senior clinical lecturer at University of Exeter Medical School, added: “Are we not testing enough? Yes, we aren’t and this is most probably a capacity issue.
“We are having to pull out key workers when we desperately need them because we’re not certain if they have an infection.”