Warm weather may stifle virus, say experts

THE coronavirus outbreak could be stifled by warm English weather in May, a study suggests.

Researchers from University College London found infections from three common coronaviruses followed a seasonal pattern in England, with large numbers occurring in winter at roughly the same time as influenza.

Cases peaked in February but only small amounts of the virus were transmitted in the summer months, with infections dropping rapidly from May, not resurging until the end of the year.

“Our findings support the idea that we could see continued but lower levels of coronavirus transmission in summer, but this may reverse in winter if there is still a large susceptible population,” said Dr Rob Aldridge, of UCL.

The study, published in the journal Wellcome Open ahead of a peer review, used data from the Flu Watch community cohort study, which tracked flu and coronaviruses from 2006 to 2011.

Covid-19 is caused by the new coronavirus SARS-COV2, but other related less serious viruses have been around in Britain for some time. As well as flu, researchers found three coronaviruses that followed similar seasonal patterns.

Ellen Fragaszy, of UCL and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said: “We believe this seasonality is driven in part by environmental factors such as temperature, humidity and sunlight. It is also likely to be driven by our own behaviours, such as our tendency when it’s cold to spend more time indoors with windows shut and in close contact with others.”

The team also discovered that no one was reinfected by the same virus, suggesting people were unlikely to catch coronavirus again. “We cautiously infer from this that we might expect some levels of immunity after infection, but we don’t know how strong or how long this will last,” said Dr Aldridge.