Government guidelines start to pay off

THE coronavirus epidemic in the UK appears to be slowing down, with the rise in new cases falling for three days in a row, latest figures show, as social distancing measures start to work.

Since last Tuesday, the number of cases had been rising between 21 per cent and 37 per cent per day, but that has since fallen to roughly 17 per cent on Saturday, 14 per cent on Sunday and 13 per cent yesterday.

Graphs released last night by the Government, following the daily press briefing, also showed how social distancing has been hugely effective, with journeys by commuter train, bus and national rail falling to below 25 per cent. Daily cases peaked at 2,885 on Friday and have been falling ever since.

Presenting the latest data, Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, said: “The measures are in place, they are making a difference, they are decreasing the contact which is so important to spread the disease and we’re doing a good job at cutting that down.

“We expect that measures that are in place that cause that social distancing, the stay-at-home message will be reducing the number of cases of transmission in the community and decreasing the number of cases overall. We would expect this, in turn, to decrease the number of people needing admission to hospital.”

Sir Patrick also said that the number of people needing hospital treatment was also stabilising, even though graphs showed it has risen significantly in recent days.

He added: “The total number of people admitted to hospital since the middle of March, which is now 8,000 people with coronavirus, that’s gone up pretty much the same amount each day for the last few days. That shows that it’s going up not in an increasing amount, but in a constant amount, which may suggest that we’re already beginning to see some effect through.”

Earlier in the day, Professor Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College London, who has been pivotal to Government modeling of the outbreak, said that the epidemic appears to be slowing down because of the social distancing measures enacted last Monday.

“In the UK we can see some early signs of slowing in some indicators – less so deaths because deaths are lagged by a long time from when measures come in force,” he told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme.

“But if we look at the numbers of new hospital admissions, that does appear to be slowing down a bit now. It has not yet plateaued, so still the numbers can be increasing each day but the rate of that increase has slowed.”

‘The measures are in place, they are making a difference, they are decreasing the contact’

1. Global deaths

The death rate is also holding steady at the moment, doubling around every three to four days.

2. Hospital admissions

Admissions to hospital are rising at a steady rate rather than seeing exponential growth

3. Transport use change

Use of National Rail, the London Underground and buses in London has fallen well below 25 per cent, new figures show, while car use has also plummeted by around two thirds

4. New UK cases

The number of people testing positive for coronavirus each day has continued to fall since peaking on Friday