Risk to children still low despite teenager’s death

THE death of a 13-year-old in Britain from coronavirus has understandably led to fears that the virus may not be as harmless for children as thought.

Until now, young people have seemed largely immune from the disease, with most cases involving people over 60 or those with underlying health conditions.

Yet, teenager Ismail Mohamed Abdulwahab, from Brixton, south London, who died earlier this week, appears to have had no apparent health issues. So, should parents be more worried?

The latest number-crunching seems to suggest not. For the first time, scientists at Imperial College London have modelled the death rates for the virus factoring in less serious cases that will not trouble the health service. And it makes for illuminating reading.

Looking at more than 70,000 cases in China, they discovered that although the overall death rate for those testing positive is 1.3 per cent – or about one in 77 – once you include mild cases, it falls dramatically to 0.66 per cent, or one in 152.

The same lowering of risk holds true for all age ranges, and it means that the chance of dying for children contracting coronavirus is minuscule, approximately 0.0069 per cent for 10- to 29-year-olds – or one in 14,492. For under-10s there is an even lower risk, around 0.0016 per cent – or one in 62,500.

“There might be outlying cases that get a lot of media attention,” said Prof Azra Ghani of Imperial. “But our analysis very clearly shows that at aged 50 and over, hospitalisation is much more likely than in those under 50, and a greater proportion of cases are likely to be fatal.”

For people in their 20s, the new death rate is still low – about one in 1,666. Even for the most at-risk group new calculations suggest a death rate of about one in 12.

The new research shows that, for those in their 30s, the risk of death is around one in 1,190. For people in their 40s it’s approximately one in 625, 50s one in 169. For people in their 60s it rises to nearly one in 50. Those over 70 have roughly a one in 23 risk of death.

Prof Neil Ferguson, from Imperial, said the British figures appeared to be mirroring China. “At the moment, the proportion of people in each age group most likely to require hospitalisation, and most likely to die from infection, are consistent with the estimates in this study,” he said.

Yesterday, it was reported that Ismail had suffered a cardiac arrest, and the case has been referred to the coroner. Experts said it may turn out that the youngster had an unknown underlying condition.

Research published last week showed that coronavirus causes a surge in inflammation which can cause cardiac problems.

Dr Nathalie Macdermott, an academic clinical lecturer at King’s College London, said: “It is important that a coroner assesses whether a post mortem is necessary to further understand the exact cause of death.”

Experts warned that the latest case should remind parents to continue to take precautions.

Dr Simon Clarke, associate professor at University of Reading, said: “The message so far has seemed to be that by following the guidance, you might save the life of a cherished parent or grandparent.

“This case could yet remind us that staying home could also save the life of a cherished child or grandchild too.”