Lockdown exit hopes stalled by tests delay
MINISTERS are scrambling to formulate a new lockdown exit strategy following warnings from their scientific adviser that mass testing cannot be introduced for at least a month.
Two weeks ago, health officials said more than 3.5 million antibody tests had been purchased, and would be available within days.
The tests, hailed as “gamechanging” by the Prime Minister, were seen as key to the lifting of restrictions on movement. But yesterday Prof John Bell, from Oxford University, who is advising the Government on such tests, said they had so far failed – and warned it would be at least a month before largescale testing could be offered.
Next week the Government and its advisers will consider whether the patterns of virus transmission would allow them to make changes to the restrictions in the coming months.
Options include regional variations to the rules, so that certain areas might see an easing of restrictions first. Alternatives under discussion could see full lockdown measures alternated with less stringent restrictions in waves. But Prof Chris Whitty, England’s Chief Medical Officer, said it would be a “mistake” to even discuss such options yet.
Dominic Raab, the Foreign Secretary, said: “Obviously we’re very mindful of the challenges businesses are facing, all employers and the workforce. But the risk is if we start taking our eye off the ball, stopping the spread and getting through the peak, we risk delaying the point at which we could take decisions on easing restrictions.”
GOVERNMENT advisers have warned ministers that a tighter lockdown will lead to a second outbreak of coronavirus later this year.
Putting in place “very stringent” measures, such as those seen in Hong Kong and China, could just delay the peak until after the restrictions were lifted, potentially into the autumn, official modelling found.
It comes amid repeated warnings from ministers that the Government will tighten social distancing measures including a ban on exercising outdoors if it is shown that people are not complying with the rules.
Last night senior police officers warned that any further restrictions would be difficult to enforce.
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) report on the “potential impact of behavioural and social intervention” casts doubt on whether a tighter lockdown would be effective.
It shows that the largest number of deaths would occur if there was no intervention, which in the UK has been estimated at around 500,000.
If some measures were implemented to “moderately reduce transmission”, which could include people changing their own behaviour without intervention, then the deaths would have reduced slightly and the peak delayed, the summary presented to the Government last month concluded.
However, a similarly high peak would be seen later in the year if “very stringent behavioural and social interventions” similar to those implemented in Hong Kong and Singapore were put into effect, the scientists predicted.
Ministers were told that while flattening the cases in the short term, “when lifted, a large epidemic would likely follow. Depending how long they were in place, this could peak in autumn”.
The current strategy of “behavioural and social interventions which further reduce transmission” were most likely to flatten the curve with a much lower peak in the early summer. Imposing restrictions such as those in Wuhan which saw people confined to their homes and then rapidly lifting them “may result in a subsequent second larger peak”, the experts said.
A number of Asian countries have introduced increasingly stringent measures including fines and jail terms for breaching stay-at-home orders and making people wear tracking bracelets. If there is no transmission at all then some scientists have warned that there will be no “herd immunity”
‘People should be treated with respect, capable of making decisions and managing personal risk’
which would allow the virus to pass through the population and then die out. China, Hong Kong and Singapore have all reported an increase in cases in recent weeks when measures were relaxed and people took the opportunity to travel for the first time.
Paul Griffiths, president of the Police Superintendents’ Association, said any tightening of the lockdown would create a challenge for officers.
He told The Daily Telegraph: “I think we would do everything in our powers and within our resources to try to police it, but it will come with pragmatic challenges, not least in terms of how we use our resources to do it.”
He also warned that if further restrictions were imposed on exercising there would be an impact on people’s mental health. Jayne Meir, assistant chief constable of West Midlands Police, said: “It would be really difficult to police individuals on a daily basis. Everybody has to take personal responsibility for this. It’s a collective responsibility to stay at home.”
The Scientific Pandemic Influenza group on Behaviours (SPI-B), which makes up part of Sage, has warned that the Government needs to be transparent about what steps it is taking and why.
In advice to ministers it said: “People should be treated with respect, capable of taking decisions for themselves and managing personal risk.”
The advice emerged after a sunny weekend which saw parks and open spaces closed amid claims that people were not observing social distancing rules and warnings that more open spaces could be locked if people do not comply. There are concerns public confidence could be lost if those in power with gardens and ample living space tell those who live in crowded conditions they cannot go to the park or exercise outdoors.
Robert Jenrick, the Communities Secretary, insisted there are no “imminent plans” to impose greater restrictions after warnings that outside exercise could be banned. “It would be very unfortunate if we had to do so and make it harder for people, particularly people who live in flats in towns and cities, to get the exercise they deserve,” he told the BBC’S Breakfast.