Regional easing could be key to getting Britain back on its feet

Lockdown measures should be eased on a regional basis once areas pass their coronavirus peak, a senior local government figure has suggested.

David Stewart, the leader of Isle of Wight Council, last night called on ministers to consider lifting restrictions within a fortnight, arguing “there has to be a balance between how long you can lock people in and letting them live their lives”.

He said cases of Covid-19 on the island – officially just 32 – were expected to peak within a fortnight, after which the lockdown could be eased before other parts of the UK, and even while curtailments remain on travel to and from the mainland.

The intervention will put further pressure on the Government to outline a potential exit strategy as the threeweek review date looms on Monday.

The principle of lifting restrictions regionally formed part of the package of scientific evidence on which Boris Johnson ordered the lockdown, and was acknowledged as a possible way out by Dr Jenny Harries, the deputy chief medical officer, on Sunday.

It is arguably the most prominent of emerging potential strategies to get society moving again. Others include allowing more freedom for the least vulnerable, or lifting restrictions in areas with the right blend of disease control and economic need.

Prof Neil Ferguson, who leads the Imperial College London team whose advice prompted the lockdown, said on Sunday a precise strategy would be formulated “in the next week or two”.

However, last night Dominic Raab, the Foreign Secretary, said that endorsing any potential exit at this stage risked undermining efforts to enforce social distancing.

It comes as Denmark – one of the first countries to impose a lockdown – was expected to announce an easing of measures starting as early as next week. Meanwhile, Angelo Borrelli, the head of Italy’s Civil Protection Agency, suggested “phase two” of its lockdown could begin next month.

Mr Stewart told The Daily Telegraph that businesses on the Isle of Wight were “suffering dramatically”.

“We think we’re a bit behind the curve here and we’ll hit our peak numbers within the next two weeks,”

‘There has to be a balance between how long you can lock people in and letting them live their lives’

he said. “It’s very important we don’t jump the gun, but when we get through the peak people are going to need to get out and spread their wings, as long as they are sensible.”

All the principal scenarios for lifting the lockdown involve waiting until the virus has peaked and the number of deaths has started to fall dramatically.

If the UK timeline mirrors China’s, the Government could be in a position to consider lifting restrictions by early summer. One potential strategy could involve intermittent social distancing, with lockdown measures lifted on an alternating basis by region.

A second strategy could be to allow the healthy and immune out, while shielding the vulnerable.

A third “seek and destroy” scenario involves waiting until the virus is at a very low level, then lifting restrictions and combatting remaining cases with aggressive tracing, testing, isolation and precision quarantine zones.

This method was successfully adopted in Singapore and South Korea.

All but the fourth strategy – waiting for a vaccine – relies heavily on widespread testing availability, which officials are struggling to introduce.

Robert Halfon, the chairman of the education select committee and a former minister, said yesterday: “I suspect that when things get better, we will be allowed out in stages.

“Vulnerable citizens will probably be told to stay at home and there will be staged openings of schools and restaurants and businesses... but the only thing we can do is follow the advice of the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Science Officer.”

Prof Christiane Woopen, of the University of Cologne, co-authored a study published last week suggesting easing restrictions based on a combination of locality, vulnerability, age and economic conditions.

Speaking on Sunday, Dr Harries appeared to endorse the principle of regional lifting of restrictions.

“London has lot of cases here – if it was found that a large number of people were immune then it may be that different interventions could come off sooner or later,” she said.

“Equally, if we find there are areas where there have been less cases less prevalent then we need to be very mindful what would happen if the social interaction levels increased in those particular areas and what the impact may be.”