One in 20 deaths linked to virus as rate gathers pace

Daily fatalities at highest level since the start of the UK outbreak as health experts say individuals should take steps to reduce risk

ONE in 20 deaths in England and Wales is linked to coronavirus – up from one in 100 last week, official figures show.

The statistics came as UK records found that a total of 6,159 patients have died in hospital after testing positive with the virus – up 786 from the day before, in the largest jump yet.

Yesterday, Sir Patrick Vallance, the Government’s Chief Scientific Adviser, said: “We are roughly a couple of weeks behind France, a few weeks behind Italy in terms of the numbers.”

Italy has now seen more than 17,000 deaths, with 10,000 in France.

It follows warnings that cases in the UK may peak over Easter, with fears of 1,000 deaths a day.

Figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), covering the period up to March 27, show the total number of deaths in England and Wales linked to coronavirus was 70 per cent higher than was announced at the time. In total, there were 1,639 such deaths recorded – compared with 964 disclosed by the Department of Health and Social Care over the period.

Not all deaths are registered quickly, but of those which were registered within the week, 4.8 per cent mentioned Covid-19 on the certificate. This compares with 1 per cent of deaths the previous week.

The ONS statistics are more comprehensive than those released by the Department of Health, as they include all deaths linked to coronavirus, not just those in hospital. But they come with an 11-day time lag, and the vast majority of deaths from coronavirus have occurred during this period.

The ONS figures for the week ending March 27 show the total of 539 deaths linked to coronavirus compares with 2,090 linked to flu.

Overall, total weekly death numbers are up by 1,011, with 11,141 in the week ending March 27, the figures show.

However, the figures show the percentage of deaths mentioning Covid-19, influenza or pneumonia is 18.8 per cent

– lower than the five-year average of 19.6 per cent for influenza or pneumonia deaths.

Overall, the figures show 62 per cent of those who have died are male, with 38 per cent female. Prof Philip Goulder, professor of immunology at the University of Oxford, said the immune response in women “is typically more aggressive and more effective” than in males. He said this is partly because females have two X chromosomes, and a number of critical immune genes are located on the X chromosome.

“Apart from the immune sex differences that impact on mortality from infections such as coronavirus, there are important behavioural differences between the sexes, for example in smoking, which affect the level of preexisting disease such as heart disease, chronic lung disease and cancer,” he added. “These have a huge impact on the outcome from infections such as coronavirus.”

Dr James Gill, honorary clinical lecturer, Warwick Medical School, said that while both explanations may play a part, individuals could act to reduce their risk.

“Whilst we don’t have a definitive answer on why there is a difference between how men and women respond to Covid-19 infection at the immunological level yet, currently it is a fair assumption that there will be a significant interplay between the biology and the environmental facts,” he said. “Ultimately, whether male or female, it is not too late to initiate lifestyle factors such as stopping smoking or increasing intake of fruit and vegetables, which may increase your chances of successfully fighting Covid-19 infection.”

Just 1 per cent of deaths involved those below the age of 44, with 88 per cent involving those over the age of 65.

Almost half of all deaths (44 per cent) occurred in London, followed by the South East and West Midlands on 13 per cent each. However, compared with the size of their populations, death rates were similar in London and the South East, followed by the North West, East, and West Midlands.

Around one in 14 coronavirus-related deaths were recorded as occurring at home, in hospices or care homes. The ONS stressed that this is only preliminary analysis, and the figures are just for England and Wales covering one week of data.

The NHS’S own records now show 1,649 deaths in England and Wales by March 27. The figure is larger than stated at this time, because many of the deaths were reported late by hospitals.

The difference between the number of new deaths announced yesterday by the Department of Health – 786 – and the combined total of new deaths announced today by health authorities in the four nations of the UK – 854 – is due to the difference in how and when the data is collected and reported.

Neither of these figures is an accurate measure of how many deaths have occurred in the UK since yesterday.

For example, one of the deaths announced yesterday by NHS England took place nearly three weeks ago on March 19.

The total number of people in the UK tested for coronavirus since the outbreak began – 213,181, as of 9am yesterday – is the equivalent of around 320 people in every 100,000, or 0.3 per cent of the population. Of these, 55,242 tested positive. Some patients need to be tested more than once, in order to confirm a suspected case.

Overall, 266,694 tests have been concluded, with 14,006 tests carried out on Monday, up from around 9,000 a week before. These tests look for the presence of the virus at the time. For the last 10 days, they have been increasingly offered to NHS staff, as well as hospital patients.

Two weeks ago, health officials said more than 3.5 million antibody tests had been purchased, and would be available within days, allowing key workers to return to employment.

Earlier this week, the Government’s scientific adviser said the tests could not be introduced for at least a month.

‘Male or female, it is not too late to initiate lifestyle factors to increase your chances of fighting infection’