Some restrictions may be lifted by
LOCKDOWN could be lifted when new cases consistently fall below 50 a day, a global health expert has said.
Britain appears to be heading towards a peak, after which deaths would decline, and ministers’ minds would then turn toward an exit strategy.
The Government has said modelling is due soon to show new trajectories for the virus, but public health officials say the curve appears to be flattening.
Until now, it has been unclear how far numbers would need to dip before lifting restrictions could be considered.
But Sung-il Cho, professor of epidemiology at Seoul National University, has said that when cases drop below 50 for a fortnight it would be possible to move to “gradual recovery”.
Modelling for The Daily Telegraph suggests that cases in Britain could fall to that level by the beginning of May, which may mean a lifting of some restrictions by the middle of next month.
South Korea kept the virus under control via a strict regime of mass testing, contact tracing and localised quarantines, recording just 200 deaths without imposing a national lockdown. Currently, it records 53 new cases daily.
At a briefing for science journalists, Prof Cho said: “One of our aims is maintaining new cases below 50 a day for the next two weeks – to do that, we need to keep on social distancing.”
In London, Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, refused to be drawn on an exit strategy, saying it was important to concentrate on keeping numbers down. Prof Chis Whitty, the Chief Medical Officer, said no exit strategy would be considered until “we are confident we are beyond the peak”.
Although deaths continue to rise in Britain, Prof Stephen Powis, the national medical director for NHS England, was optimistic that the epidemic curve was beginning to flatten.
Experts are now beginning to consider the scenarios of how Britain could emerge from lockdown, including intermittent social distancing, with people required to go back into lockdown if the virus resurfaces.
Prof David Alexander, of University College London’s institute for risk and
disaster reduction, said: “Britain and other countries should hold themselves ready to return to lockdown, possibly with more stringent conditions than before. In the autumn, a second wave of Covid-19 could occur and could be devastating.”
Allowing the healthy or immune to resume their lives and get back to work, while continuing to shield the vulnerable, could also be a way to loosen the reins. A third strategy, possibly the most likely, involves waiting until cases are at a very low level, lifting restrictions and combating any remaining disease via aggressive contact tracing, testing and quarantine zones.
All scenarios involve waiting until the virus has peaked and death figures have fallen dramatically. But experts warned that life after lockdown was unlikely to get back to normal for a long time, with restrictions likely to be needed for many months.
Dr Joe Grove, of UCL’S department of infection and immunity, said: “Once the current epidemic peak has passed, simply returning to life as usual would likely trigger another epidemic.
“Ultimately, the only way we can shake off the shackles of Covid-19 is widespread immunity and the only safe way to achieve that is through vaccination. In the meantime, testing gives us a route to some semblance of normality.”
Prof Ilan Kelman, also from UCL, said there could be a “staged standdown” of restrictions. “So, arts and sports events would not return immediately, but we could be outside as much as we want. Numbers would have to be controlled on public transport and in stores, with meetings and events continuing online. A final possibility would be the availability of a safe and effective vaccine,” he said.
This week, the University of Warwick suggested that allowing young people aged 20 to 30 out early could help to get Britain moving again.
Andrew Oswald, professor of economics and behavioural science at Warwick, said: “The rationale for lockdown is to save lives. However, severe damage is being done to the economy, future incomes, unemployment rates, levels of national debt and the freedoms we enjoy as a modern society.
“Before long, some balance will have to be struck.”