Jacinda Ardern earns praise as a model crisis manager

NEW ZEALAND’S strict social distancing regimen is being held up as a model for keeping the spread of Covid-19 under control, with hunting, swimming and surfing all banned.

As of yesterday, the country had 969 confirmed cases, 241 “probable cases”, 282 recovered cases, just 12 people in hospital with Covid-19, and one death. Cases have fallen for three days.

Although the population of New Zealand is around five million, three million tourists a year visit, and it could easily have been a very different story.

The government there published its Covid-19 modelling on March 31, projecting the consequences of a lack of early action, and reinforcing the decision to declare a state of emergency and impose a nationwide lockdown.

In its worst-case scenario, it warned two thirds of the population could fall ill, with 146,000 hospitalised, 36,600 in intensive care, and a potential death toll of 27,600.

Prof Michael Baker, a New Zealand epidemiologist, said on April 3 that his country had the “most decisive and strongest lockdown in the world” and was “the only Western country that has an elimination goal” for Covid-19.

The lockdown, in place for less than two weeks, banned surfing, swimming in the sea, and hunting in bushland. Schools were closed. Internal flights were largely banned, and the borders closed. The public was urged not to divert the emergency services.

New Zealanders largely adhered to guidelines on walking and cycling only within their own neighbourhoods, queuing 1.5m apart, and sticking to “one-in, one-out” protocols at shops.

Many have praised Jacinda Ardern, the prime minister, for her clear communication. Alistair Campbell, the former adviser to Tony Blair, said: “I would say she has scored high marks. She gave clarity sadly lacking in the UK about who key workers were, and what essential journeys were.”

But the action comes at a cost. As well as funding assistance packages, the government is bracing for the loss of tourism, which last year provided jobs for one in eight New Zealanders, and added £8 billion to the economy. Ms Ardern hasn’t sugar-coated her messages.

In March she warned: “We currently have 102 cases – but so did Italy once.”