New Zealand eases isolation as tough rules show success

Early intervention by the prime minister led to low infection and death rates, but economy has suffered

Jonathan Marshall in Auckland

FOR five weeks, New Zealanders have endured some of the toughest lockdown conditions anywhere in the world.

The rules were conveyed loudly, clearly and frequently: no socialising with anyone outside your household; no beach swimming or boating; no holidays; no hiking; no children’s playgrounds; no weddings; no funerals; no haircuts; and no restaurants or even Uber Eats.

“Educational” police roadblocks – and, in about 500 cases, prosecution – faced anyone failing to comply with the “stay home and save lives” mantra of Jacinda Ardern, the prime minister.

Now, the country appears to be on the verge of victory.

This week, health officials announced that infection rates had fallen low enough to hope that the island nation had achieved effective elimination of the disease, and Ms Ardern lifted some, but not all, of the restrictions.

From today, New Zealanders can visit fast-food outlets, buy takeaway coffee, purchase plants from garden centres and visit some family members living outside their household.

“I feel like Sir Edmund Hillary at base camp ready to attack the mountain,” said Murray Traill, a Mcdonald’s franchise owner, as he switched on the fryer to serve his first customer at 5am.

He is expecting a busy day. Traffic controllers have been hired and police prepared to deal with frustrated customers facing long queues for their first takeaway in weeks.

“I am not sure how much longer we could have kept going,” said Margaret Fullon, a florist in Wellington. “It is really too soon to say if the sales we are now allowed to do under the new conditions will provide enough income. But we have no other choice, and this is better than being completely closed.”

The guidelines are still stricter than most nations’ highest alert level.

Some school gates have been unlocked and classrooms disinfected – but only for children of parents employed in “essential services”.

Shops can resume trading, but customers must phone ahead or go online to make orders, and collect goods from pavements outside the store, or have them couriered.

Swimming at local beaches is allowed, but only as long as it’s done near the shoreline, and building and construction labourers can only work if they can keep apart from colleagues.

Most importantly, families may now hold funerals to bury their loved ones – provided they are attended by no more than 10 people.

Initial modelling for the epidemic in New Zealand was dire. Predictions included 14,000 fatalities, two thirds of the population infected and up to 32,000 needing hospital care, 4,000 potentially requiring ventilators.

But the country went into the crisis with several advantages. It has a well developed health service, a population of just five million, smaller than many European capital cities, and a government that had already won the confidence of the public following its handling of the 2019 terrorist attack in Christchurch and the volcanic eruption at White Island.

Its geographic isolation, always problematic in market terms, also proved an unexpected blessing.

Knowing that the concept of isolation was woven into the very fabric of Kiwi life, culture and identity, Ms Ardern moved quickly to lead the country into a total lockdown long before many larger nations with more infections.

It wasn’t without moments of panic. When Ms Ardern imposed the level four lockdown, Kiwis bought enough toilet paper to last several years and alcohol sales went up 1,800 per cent. But by and large Kiwis embraced the restrictions.

And it appears to have paid off. New Zealand has recorded just 19 deaths and 1,469 cases of Covid-19, of which 1,180 have since recovered.

Studies showing new infection rates in the low single digits “give us confidence that we have achieved our goal of elimination”, Dr Ashley Bloomfield, director general of health, said yesterday, though he cautioned it did not mean the virus was gone completely.

It has won the government praise abroad, with the American magazine

The Atlantic recently dubbing Ms Ardern “the most effective leader on the planet”.

It has played well at home, too. With polls saying 66 per cent of New Zealanders agreed the timing of restrictions being relaxed was “about right”, the prime minister will be feeling confident ahead of elections in September.

However, even optimists foresee a decade of rebuilding the country’s economy.

“We have done brilliantly but it has cost us dearly,” said Richard Miles, 52, a business owner in Auckland. “Little New Zealand cannot afford to go through this again if we don’t get it right the first time.”

Most alarming, he said, was the suggestion that New Zealand’s borders may remain closed for two years, with devastating consequences for tourism. “We can’t afford to open the border but we also can’t afford to close it.”

Tourism, which is worth £19billion a year to New Zealand’s economy and employs about 230,000 people, has “reduced to zero”, said Stuart Ogden, head of marketing at Fullers360, which operates ferry services on North Island.

Industry leaders are considering promoting domestic tourism and talks are under way with Australia for a bilateral open borders agreement.

Air New Zealand is operating at 1 per cent capacity and is braced to become essentially a domestic airline.

Billions of dollars in wage subsidies have been distributed to protect jobs and more relief is coming. But a poll shows 40 per cent of New Zealanders predict a “prolonged recession” and 8 per cent expect a “depression”.

Ms Ardern has called for patience, telling those returning to work this week to go straight home after they clock off and not mingle with friends.

“We are opening up the economy, but we’re not opening up people’s social lives,” she told the nation. “Our marathon will take patience and endurance but we need to finish what we started. Think about our local businesses, they need our support. Lives and livelihoods depend on our success as a nation.”

Siouxsie Wiles, a former Imperial College London scientist became one of the public faces of New Zealand’s epidemic response. “I am very concerned that we might blow it and become complacent and think we have reached the finish,” she said. “New Zealand is in the best scenario that we could have hoped for but there is more to do. If we come out of this too fast the numbers will rise. I only want to do this once.”