Second wave requires different policies

It is in the nature of pandemics that their true impact is not known for some time, often years. So many factors come into play, such as demographics, population density and preparedness, that it is not immediately evident that one country has come through in a better state. Only when all the data are available, taking into account normal death rates and variables, such as the population’s average age, will it be possible to say whether the excess mortality in the UK is greater than elsewhere.

The fact that some countries show low rates now may not necessarily stand them in good stead when a second wave hits, which experience suggests is inevitable. Suppressing a virus does not eradicate it and countries that have locked down hardest might find any relaxation quickly sees it spread again. This is clearly of concern to the Government, which is reluctant to discuss easing controls. But as it stands, the UK is on course to have the highest number of first-wave deaths in western Europe, though not necessarily as a proportion of the population.

While the peak is thought to have occurred in hospitals around April 8, the five-day average is now the highest of any major European economy at this point in the pandemic’s curve. In just over a fortnight there have been 10,000 additional fatalities but these are only deaths in hospitals. The UK total was just below 600 yesterday, lower than in recent weeks. As has been clear for some time, care homes around the country have been ravaged by the disease. Figures from the Office for National Statistics show that a further 4,343 coronavirus deaths have been recorded outside of hospitals in England and Wales, mainly in care homes.

Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, said the care sector had been a priority from the outset. Yet it must be asked whether the policy of allowing visitors until mid-march and moving people out of hospital and into homes to maximise NHS capacity for coronavirus patients was sensible. Some homes objected but were overruled, which given there are many hospitals with spare beds they have found hard to understand. Other additional deaths can be attributed to the reluctance of people with serious illness to go to hospitals or see a doctor.

So powerful was the imperative to “protect the NHS” that other health aspects have been neglected. Surely policy should be guided by medical need, not just the expansion of bed capacity.