Johnson to dash lockdown hopes

PM to say it is too early for major easing as figures show UK could have one of world’s worst death rates

BORIS JOHNSON will today warn the nation not to expect major changes to the lockdown after it emerged Britain has one of the world’s worst coronavirus death rates.

The Prime Minister will use his first Downing Street press conference since his return to work to explain why social restrictions must largely remain in place.

Data published by the Cabinet Office yesterday show Spain and Belgium are the only two countries with a worse per-head death rate than Britain.

On eight separate days this month, more than 1,000 people died of the virus, detailed statistics for accumulated deaths in hospitals, care homes and other settings showed.

Mr Johnson will chair a Cabinet meeting this morning at which ministers will discuss the way forward, but it became clear yesterday that they favour a highly cautious approach to lifting the restrictions.

Dominic Raab, the Foreign Secretary, said that in Germany – which contained the virus better than any other European country – the transmission rate had gone up after it eased its lock- down. He said: “Chancellor Merkel has made it clear that they might need a second lockdown in Germany if the infection rate continues to rise.

“So this is a very real risk, and it’s vital we proceed carefully ... we mustn’t gamble away the sacrifices and the progress that we’ve made.”

Mr Johnson, who has delayed his paternity leave after the birth of his son yesterday, will explain that the key to exiting lockdown is to keep the virus’s reproduction rate – the R value – below one, meaning each infected person passes it to fewer than one other person on average.

Sage, the Government’s scientific advisory panel, is expected to present evidence early next week of the effect on the R value of lifting different restrictions, such as allowing children back to school or more people back to work.

Only then will Mr Johnson make a final decision about what changes he can make to the lockdown at its scheduled review on May 7.

The Prime Minister had hoped to strike a more optimistic note, having earlier this week promised to “fire up the engines” of the economy. However, the latest death figures, coupled with the worrying reports from Germany, forced ministers to rein in their plans.

No10 played down the possibility of Mr Johnson announcing imminent major changes. A source said: “It will very much be in the area of how we satisfy our five tests for coming out of lockdown,

chief among which is making sure we don’t risk another exponential rise in infections. It’s still too early to be setting out any details of what any easing of the lockdown might look like.”

A blueprint for what ministers call “phase two” of the lockdown started to take shape yesterday, with plans for schools, workers, transport and outdoor gatherings becoming clearer.

However, the timing of such changes has not yet been decided.

The five biggest groups representing British business have been asked to send dossiers by Sunday night to Alok Sharma, the Business Secretary, explaining how different sectors of the economy could get back to work without breaking social distancing rules.

The pub chain JD Wetherspoon last night announced plans that it would reopen its bars in June.

Gavin Williamson, the Education Secretary, confirmed a phased return for schools, while Michael Gove, the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, suggested some public services would only reopen when there were sufficient supplies of personal protective equipment for staff.

Mr Gove also said the Isle of Wight and Scottish islands could be used to pilot measures including a contact tracing mobile phone app and track and trace before they were introduced nationwide, raising the possibility these areas could be the first out of lockdown. Whitehall sources said ministers were expected to discuss the possibility of Cornwall being the first area of the mainland to exit lockdown, as it is easy to control traffic flows in and out. Baroness Vere of Norbiton, the transport minister, confirmed ministers were looking at limiting commuters on trains and staggering working hours to encourage social distancing.

For the first time yesterday, the Government published the combined total of deaths reported in hospitals, care homes and other settings over the previous 24 hours, giving a far more accurate picture of the scale of the crisis.

There were 578 deaths in hospitals, marginally down on the previous day, but when other deaths were added the figure leapt to 765.

The first day-by-day breakdown of combined deaths showed that the daily death toll had been more than 1,000 eight times in April. The worst day was on April 10, when 1,152 people died, one of four consecutive days when deaths were in four figures.

In total, 4,419 more deaths were announced, taking into account those in care homes over the period March 2 to April 28, taking the total to 26,097.

The number of deaths per million people in the UK is higher than the US – which has the highest overall death total in the world – Italy and France, with only Belgium and Spain worse off.

Government health experts said care home deaths may not have peaked, and their true death toll may have been under-reported due to delays. The final death total is also likely to be worse than at present, as it only includes people who tested positive, meaning there will be more to come when all deaths with Covid-19 as a factor on the death certificate are added.

Government sources pointed out that the figures were among the most thorough in the world, and that other countries would ultimately prove to be above Britain when they counted all coronavirus deaths.

Last night, Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish First Minister, who attends coronavirus meetings of the Cobra emergency committee, told Peston on ITV: “I’m far from convinced that when we get to the next review point on May 7 we’ll be in a position to lift any of these measures, because the margins of manoeuvre that we’re operating in are very, very, very tight.”

Last night, it was reported that remdesivir, an antiviral drug used to treat Ebola, will be authorised for use on coronavirus patients in the US after Dr Anthony Fauci, the country’s infectious diseases expert, said he was “very optimistic” about it, following a trial which suggested it could shorten the recovery time of patients by a third.

However, the results contradicted a separate study in The Lancet published yesterday which found the drug does not aid coronavirus recovery.

CORONAVIRUS deaths are almost 20 per cent higher than originally thought, after the Government added care home fatalities to official data.

During yesterday’s daily Downing Street briefing, Dominic Raab, the Foreign Secretary, unveiled an “improved daily reporting system”, which included clinically confirmed deaths occurring in care homes and the community for the first time.

According to the latest Public Health England (PHE) figures, a total of 26,097 people have died in hospitals, care homes and the wider community in the UK after contracting Covid-19.

It is the first time data on the number of deaths in care homes and the wider community has been included in the Government’s daily updates, which previously only included confirmed coronavirus deaths in hospitals.

The total reached by the new method of reporting is around 17 per cent higher than previous data showed and includes an additional 3,811 deaths recorded since the start of the outbreak which had not been reported until now.

The vast majority of these new deaths – which show a jump of almost a fifth on previous reports – were in care homes and other settings.

However, around 30 per cent of these extra cases occurred in hospital yet were missed from recording systems until now.

All the cases reported in the daily statistics only show confirmed cases, meaning individuals had tested positive, but also that official statistics are likely to significantly underestimate the true impact of coronavirus.

Healthcare workers – around 20 per cent of whom have moved into care homes to look after residents and reduce the risk of infection – have repeatedly warned about a lack of testing kits and Personal Protective Equipment (PPE).

The latest figures prompted Caroline Abrahams, the charity director at Age UK, to reiterate calls for increased provision of PPE and testing in care homes so that they “can finally get ahead of the virus, rather than constantly playing ‘catch up’ as is happening today”.

Her comments come as PHE said yesterday that around 4,516 homes have reported outbreaks from March 17 until Monday this week – around 29 per cent of the total care homes.

Earlier this week, figures from the Office for National Statistics said 4,319 deaths linked to coronavirus – both suspected and confirmed cases – have now been recorded outside of hospitals in England and Wales.

However, weeks ago, The Daily Telegraph reported an estimate from Care England that there had already been around 7,500 deaths linked to coronavirus.