Teachers are warned over bias in exam predictions
TEACHERS have been warned over “unconscious bias” amid fears that poorer children and pupils from ethnic minorities could be given incorrect GCSE or A-level grade predictions.
Schools should be required to inform exam boards about pupils’ socioeconomic status, ethnicity and disabilities alongside their predicted grades, the UK equality watchdog said.
This would enable exam boards to analyse trends in the predicted grades they receive from teachers and check for any “systematic advantages or disadvantages” for particular groups of students. If any are found, they should be investigated and “remedial action” taken where necessary.
In their submission to Ofqual’s consultation, the Equality and Human Rights Commission (EHRC) said relying on teachers’ predictions carried a risk of “unconscious or conscious bias”.
This could have a negative impact on students from ethnic minorities as well as those with disabilities and special educational needs who are “already disproportionately disadvantaged”.
The EHRC said that if students were not satisfied with their grades, they should be able to appeal.
The Government announced in March that all GCSE and A-level exams would be cancelled this summer, with predicted grades awarded instead.
Teachers have been told to submit grades to exam boards by the end of this month based on what they think pupils would have been most likely to achieve. Their judgments should be based on a full range of evidence – including classwork, coursework, mock exams or previous results. Exam boards and Ofqual will then carry out a process of moderation and award students their grades in August.
David Isaac, the EHRC chairman, warned that predicted grades could “deepen the existing inequality” in education and put the futures of deprived youngsters at risk if not correctly implemented. He urged ministers to issue guidance to schools on how to predict grades and rank pupils to minimise the risk of conscious or unconscious bias.
“We can’t let the crisis happening now affect the future of disadvantaged pupils when so many, particularly disabled pupils and those of ethnic minority background, already face an uphill battle,” he said.
Ofqual’s own equality impact assessment on predicted grades found that black and Asian students were more likely to have their grades over-predicted than their white peers.
Pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds were also more likely to be given overly generous predictions.
Ofqual’s review of evidence found that private schools and grammar schools made the most accurate and least optimistic predictions, which could be down to the fact that those schools have, on average, higher performing students. The EHRC said the studies Ofqual cited were based on predicted grades for university admissions,
‘We can’t let the crisis affect the future of disadvantaged pupils when so many ... already face an uphill battle’
which was different to the current situation.
Fewer than half of students think their predicted grades will accurately reflect their ability, a survey of school leavers found. Just 46 per cent felt their predicted grades would be the same as the grades they would have got had they taken exams, according to a poll commissioned by the Higher Education Policy Institute.
An Ofqual spokesman said: “The guidance we have developed sets out how teachers can work together to best make objective, evidence-based judgements... and we are confident that schools and colleges will be able to apply this fairly and consistently.”
The standardisation model will be designed “to ensure, so far as is possible, that students are not advantaged or disadvantaged on the basis of their socio-economic background”. packs for children across the country, to encourage vulnerable and isolated young people to remain active.
New research from the University of Strathclyde has called for parents to make exercise part of a child’s routine during lockdown. The study, detailed in a comment article published in The
Lancet Child & Adolescent Health, covers 15 nations. It found time spent in places such as parks, beaches and community gardens reduced by nearly a third between the week ending Feb 23 – before the World Health Organisation declared the Covid-19 outbreak a pandemic – and the week ending April 5.
The researchers found these measures had the effect of reducing still further what were often already low levels of physical activity in children.
Prof John Reilly, of Strathclyde’s School of Psychological Sciences & Health, said: “The measures are in place for a very good reason, but this reduction in physical activity could be seen as an unintended consequence.
“Even before lockdown it was a problem. In Scotland alone, fewer than 20 per cent of children were meeting physical activity guidelines.
“Breaks in screen time are also important, but one reason physical activity is most needed just now is that school is the place where children most often have it.”