Johnson must take back control of messaging
After the muddle of ‘Stay Alert’, Johnson needs to be clear about how he will get Britain back to work
No wonder the Government was so keen to end the virtual Parliament yesterday as it tries to get the country back to work amid a tumult of mixed messaging.
If it had not been resolved for MPS to return to the House of Commons on June 2, how on earth was Boris Johnson going to persuade an already befuddled public?
Until now, MPS could work remotely – but after next week’s Whitsun recess they will be classed as in the “cannot work from home” category.
Thanks to the confusion around the second phase of lockdown, the Prime Minister faces an uphill struggle to persuade others to follow suit.
As Chancellor Rishi Sunak pointed out in visceral terms on Tuesday, it is “not obvious there will be an immediate bounce-back” for the economy once restrictions are eased further.
“It takes time for people to get back to the habits they had. There are still restrictions in place,” he said, as figures showing those claiming unemployment benefit soared to 2.1million in April.
Admitting the “jury’s out” on what degree of long-term scarring there is to the economy, he conceded that “the longer the recession is, it is likely the degree of that scarring will be greater”.
The fact that Britain appears to have shut down more of its economy than other superpowers presents the PM with more of a challenge than other world leaders. A study by the trading platform Alphabook found the UK had shut down 60 per cent, compared with 50 per cent in France and Germany, 35 per cent in the US and just 5 per cent in Japan.
One MP said: “The Chancellor said we are heading for a recession; how we get out of it is in the lap of the gods. Speed is vital.
“We can’t stagger out of it, we’ve got to be decisive.”
So from an economic perspective there is an urgent need for a return to a “new normal” as the UK prepares for a further loosening of restrictions on June 1, with non-essential retailers set to reopen and professional sport to start, albeit behind closed doors.
The communication of this message is going to be key – yet Downing Street has been curiously reluctant to confirm reports that Mr Johnson will deliver another landmark coronavirus speech at the end of the month.
According to one Cabinet minister: “It’s logical he will want to do a speech on or around June 1 – a Monday. He announced the lockdown on a Monday and the Sunday speech was criticised, so perhaps he will speak again on the day the schools go back.
“The Prime Minister will need to chart progress, tell the country where we are and how we look ahead to June and July.”
Having admitted the last televised broadcast had required “a recovery job” after the road map was criticised for lacking clarity, will Mr Johnson be able to be any more crystalline when all the Government’s next moves are conditional on the science? The risk of a second peak still weighs heavily on the PM’S mind, according to insiders. One said: “This is about consent, not compulsion. It still depends on the scientific advice; it’s allowing people to make choices for themselves but there will be no great push until the scientists say it’s OK to do more.”
No10 is said to be encouraged by data suggesting the roads are busier, more people are getting out and the public’s appetite for staying indoors – not least in the recent hot weather – is beginning to wane.
On Tuesday, it beefed up the much-criticised “Stay Alert” to include advising the public to “keep our distance, wash our hands, think of others and play our part. All together”.
As a Cabinet minister put it: “This is an evolving process. Asking people to do more exercise is giving them more confidence in being out and about.
“Rishi had to use harsh language because there are people on furlough who have rediscovered being with their families and want to see them but soon the economic reality is going to hit that their well-being depends on their ongoing employment.” At the Department for Work and Pensions, staff are said to be “ready to ramp up”.
Yet it seems the Government is content for the public to take the lead on a return to work, even though that may lead to even more confusion. One Cabinet minister said: “This isn’t just a top-down directive. The impetus has to come from the bottom up, too.”
Another said: “It’s very straight forward to say ‘stay at home’ than it is to say ‘use your own judgment’. When Matt [Hancock] gave guidance saying you could see one parent not both, what he was trying to do was allow
‘The PM will need to chart progress, tell the country where we are and how we look ahead to June and July’
people to see their parents but not let it get out of hand.
“It’s not a confused message, it’s a nuanced one.”
With parents unsure whether they should send their children back to school on June 1 and unions having a field day with the muddled messaging, even Mr Johnson admitted: “I’ve learnt it’s much easier to take people’s freedoms away than give them back.”
His last speech was intended to get what one insider described as the “over compliers” back to work – employees the Government thought would continue working in construction, manufacturing and on the factory floor – only for them to stay at home.
The return of cleaners, nannies and childminders was also designed to encourage more women back to work, though the Government was rightly criticised for failing to foresee the childcare implications of allowing reception, Year 1 and Year 6 pupils back at the beginning of the next month, but not other primary schoolchildren.
As one senior Tory put it: “How on earth does the Government expect people to get back to work if their primary school aged children are still at home?
“Secondary school pupils are different because they are more capable of looking after themselves but obviously younger children cannot be left home alone.
“It’s all very well getting manufacturing back on track but it’s not a large part of the economy – we need our services sector back, and that means women must be encouraged back to work as much as men.”
Tories are hoping that the PM takes back control of the clarion calling that propelled him to power.