New infections fall by 40pc over a fortnight

Leading statisticians estimate deaths related to Covid-19 could taper off by the end of next month

The number of new coronavirus infections in the UK has fallen by as much as 40 per cent in two weeks, analysis by The Daily Telegraph can reveal. Statisticians estimate deaths from the virus could be eliminated in pockets of the country by next month. Falling numbers of infections and deaths, particularly in London, provide hope for an end to lockdown, but they come amid stark warnings against undoing what has been achieved and risking a second wave.

THE number of new coronavirus infections in the UK has fallen by as much as 40 per cent in two weeks, analysis by The Daily Telegraph can reveal.

Statisticians estimate deaths from the virus could be eliminated in pockets of the country by next month.

Falling numbers of infections and deaths, particularly in London, provide hope for an end to lockdown, but they come amid stark warnings against undoing

The UK is well past the peak when it comes to new cases, and the number of fresh infections detected has fallen significantly throughout this month.

In the two weeks since May 6, the average number of new infections over the previous seven days dropped by almost 40 per cent (37.9. per cent). Fewer than 2,500 fresh cases were detected on May 20, almost 30 per cent lower than the same day the previous week.

It comes after a worrying plateau in the number of new cases lasting since early April. For almost 40 days the average number of daily new cases failed to fall below 4,000, but in recent days there has been a sharp decline.

According to data released by the Office for National Statistics on Tuesday, it is now clear that deaths from coronavirus in hospitals across England and Wales peaked on April 8, and the spike in care home deaths came just over a week later, around April 17.

In the fortnight between April 24 and May 8, the number of weekly care home deaths fell by 40 per cent, and deaths in hospital fell by 59 per cent.

Some leading statisticians have estimated deaths from coronavirus in Britain could peter out by the end of June, but warned that hospitals and care homes need strict monitoring to ensure no further outbreaks.

The number of deaths on Monday was 545, down from 627 a week ago, and the seven-day average is now 378.

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that, on average, deaths are now falling at a rate of around 30 each day.

Carl Heneghan, professor of evidence-based medicine at the University of Oxford, said that there would be a sporadic rise and fall in deaths over the next four to six weeks, but he would not expect to find coronavirus listed in the ONS death data by the end of June.

He said: “You can already see that regions are reporting 48 hours without deaths. By the end of June we’ll be looking at the data and finding it difficult to find people with this illness in the deaths if the current trends continue.

“But we will continue to have these sporadic ups and downs for about four to six weeks. As we go down to lower numbers, we will have a bit more variation in the data.”

As some of the smallest NHS trusts in England are beginning to enjoy successive days with no new Covid-19 deaths, many others have seen significant falls in fatalities.

Of the 218 trusts covered in daily data from NHS England, 167 have seen a reduction in coronavirus deaths between the periods of April 8-14 and May 8-14.

The trusts that have seen the largest drop in deaths are University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust in the Midlands, London’s Barts Health NHS Trust and the Royal Free London NHS Foundation Trust. They have seen weekly death tolls fall by 156, 126 and 97 respectively, from the week commencing April 8 to the week beginning May 8.