A tale of two islands

Two populous island nations, both advanced economies situated off the coasts of major continental land masses, might be expected to have shared similar experiences during the coronavirus pandemic. Yet the UK and Japan have had completely different outcomes. Whereas this country has the highest death toll in Europe and one of the highest per capita in the world, Japan by contrast has been remarkably unscathed.

Tokyo – with a population greater than London or New York – did not record any increase in overall deaths in March, though virus infections did not peak until April. If excess mortality is the benchmark for how well countries have handled the pandemic, Japan may have a good story to tell, with the fewest confirmed cases and deaths of any Group of Seven leading democracy.

Yet Shinzo Abe’s government did not formally lock down the economy, though it did operate a state of emergency which had a similar effect, with schools and factories closed, bars and restaurants shut and the cancellation of the Tokyo Olympics. Nor has it embarked on a comprehensive test, track and tracing programme as seen in South Korea and planned for the UK. The state of emergency is now being lifted in most parts of the country.

There seems no obvious reason why Japan has escaped the worst aspects of the pandemic. If anything, its more vulnerable older population is larger than in the UK. The authorities have been accused of missing cases because they do not test but this would not explain low excess death figures. Has it to do with overall health, and especially obesity which in Japan affects just 4 per cent of adults while in the UK it is 29 per cent? We trust our scientists are trying to find out.